I always think that if you survive Monday, you’re a third of the way through the week. Psychologically, anyway. This week I think I’m going to have to go all the way through Thursday before I feel like it’s Tuesday.
If that makes any sense.
Waiting for returns to come in here in the Mitten. It was a perfect day for voting — high 60s most of the day, when it wasn’t 70. The mild winter is back for its final days, which can be a glorious thing, but can also be disastrous. The fruit trees will start to bud after a few days of this, and if we get another cold snap? No apples, no cherries, no glorious fruit from Michigan this year.
So, fingers crossed.
I voted, of course. There was only the presidential question on the ballot, which made it fast work. And I got there on my bicycle, which made it something of a miracle.
And now I’m exhausted.
At this very, very early hour, Bernie is doing better than I’d ever have thought — he’s got 10 points on Hillary right now, but it’s only 16 percent reporting now. And Kasich is coming in second for the GOP. You know what they say: Second is the new win-if-it-weren’t-for-Trump.
Wouldn’t it be an upset if the Bern takes Michigan? I doubt it’ll happen, but I think I’ll post this right away, in case it does.
In the meantime, any bloggage? Maybe this, yet another data analysis proving Obamacare is a success.
But right now, I think I need to go to bed.
jcburns said on March 9, 2016 at 12:33 am
Yes, it would be an upset. Yes, it IS an upset. Enjoying those Bernie percentages in tiny U.P. counties like Luce and Mackinac.
127 chars
Brandon said on March 9, 2016 at 2:10 am
Wouldn’t it be an upset if the Bern takes Michigan? I doubt it’ll happen, but I think I’ll post this right away, in case it does.
It did. Hawaii results should be in later tonight or early tomorrow.
214 chars
Brandon said on March 9, 2016 at 3:15 am
Local news at ten p.m.: Trump is the projected winner of the Hawaii GOP caucus.
79 chars
Jerry said on March 9, 2016 at 3:18 am
About women being interrupted whilst speaking: Thatcher trained herself (or was trained) to take breaths in the middle of a sentence rather than at the end thus removing the natural points when interrupting would be natural. It allowed her to respond to questions with a prepared statement rather than actually answering the question.
334 chars
Dexter said on March 9, 2016 at 3:20 am
I didn’t even follow Michigan 2016 because HRC dominated the polls and I just thought she’d win. I am shocked…50-48 Bernie.
Our turn comes Tuesday and again I cannot imagine Ohio voting for Sanders, but I always do my little part and it’s a good feeling to vote for someone I believe in. In ’08 I did vote for HRC in the primary but the support she had for W’s Iraq folly has festered all these years and not diminished, and now I could never vote for her. Seemingly Bernie is the only one who remembers this, and the anti-HRC contingent who chant about emails and Benghazi don’t care that her biggest detraction is that she is a screaming war hawk. Also , she was on-board 100% with Bill’s NAFTA disaster. Only a few Neanderthals may diss HRC simply for her gender, but she is unfit for high office because she is pro-rich and anti-people. I suppose my old union, the UAW International, will support her if she runs against Trump, but many members will not.
965 chars
Dexter said on March 9, 2016 at 3:25 am
Jerry, Thatcher came around here once, just a few miles from my town in Hillsdale, Michigan to speak at our own Dave K.’s alma mater, Hillsdale College. Wasn’t she the most-hated woman in British history?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t4-zDem1Sk
251 chars
Dexter said on March 9, 2016 at 3:49 am
This just came across my screen: George Martin has passed at age 90. The way he influenced and shaped The Beatles’ music changed my world over 50 years ago, and he also produced and influenced many other projects for many artists.
http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-20449870
285 chars
adrianne said on March 9, 2016 at 6:47 am
What a shocker in Michigan! But maybe not because the state has lots of voters who feel alienated and pissed off. They went for Trump and Sanders, not surprisingly. Hillary needs to regroup, fast.
196 chars
beb said on March 9, 2016 at 7:57 am
That Bernie won Michigan is a shocker (but a pleasant one) especially since Hillary was hitting him pretty hard over not supporting the bail-out of the car-makers. On the other hand her win in Mississippi was gobstoppingly overwhelming. However this plays out the important thing to remember is that Bernie or Hillary will be worlds away better than Trump or Cruz. So come fall pull that lever for the Democrat.
411 chars
Connie said on March 9, 2016 at 8:17 am
I was looking at the presidential primary returns for Michigan by county. It looked to me like the counties where Kasich got the most votes were counties with a large university presence. Which makes me wonder whether a lot of Democrats voted in the Repub primary just to vote for someone other than Trump.
Much of my morning is to be spent in training on the new copy machines. We no longer have individual printers, we are all networked to two copy machines and one large printer. So I send print orders to the copier that is just outside my office door, and I always wait to hear it start. But now it is moving about ten feet farther away, and for some stupid reason I worry about hearing it. It works fine whether I can hear it or not.
747 chars
Suzanne said on March 9, 2016 at 8:27 am
Gosh, Connie, I’m very impressed that you got training. My past few jobs were of the “figure out on your own how the copier, phones, etc.” work. Ah, the simple things in life that make me happy, like training.
Trump seems unstoppable, which is scary, but it is pretty funny watching the collective GOP panic and the denials that he’s not REALLY got that much support.
370 chars
Deborah said on March 9, 2016 at 9:00 am
What Beb said, in the fall pull that lever for the democrat, whoever it is. Dexter, talk to your pals, it’s so important. How do the delegates split up in MI? HRC may be no worse off if they split evenly.
204 chars
Deggjr said on March 9, 2016 at 9:28 am
I don’t understand the liberal hate for Donald Trump. His foreign policy position is the least belligerent of all Republican candidates. He considers Social Security a deal. On health care, he won’t let people ‘die in the streets’ and accepts Republican primary voters’ boos for his position.
Sure he’s a bully but he doesn’t kiss up and punch down. I think his take out of Jeb! was brilliant.
401 chars
Danny said on March 9, 2016 at 9:31 am
Dexter, Yoko Ono was the most hated person in British history. Probably followed by Heather Mills.
98 chars
Jolene said on March 9, 2016 at 9:45 am
How do the delegates split up in MI?
I don’t know the exact numbers, but, because HRC won massively in Mississippi and because Michigan was so nearly a tie, Hillary actually came out further ahead than she had been.
I am not a person who spends an inordinate amount of time worrying about terrorism or national security more generally, but Bernie scares me a bit because he sometimes sounds like the U.S. Is alone on the planet–the exceptions being the Scandinavian countries he wants us to emulate and the low-wage manufacturing countries he fears we will emulate. Very hard to imagine him as commander-in-chief.
627 chars
Jolene said on March 9, 2016 at 9:56 am
Here’s an analysis demonstrating that Hillary could do a lot more losing and still win.
261 chars
nancy said on March 9, 2016 at 10:23 am
I’m going to post this tomorrow for people who don’t read the comments, but this Thomas Frank piece in the Guardian is very good on the subject of Trump’s appeal.
279 chars
alex said on March 9, 2016 at 10:34 am
I don’t understand the liberal hate for Donald Trump. His foreign policy position is the least belligerent of all Republican candidates. He considers Social Security a deal. On health care, he won’t let people ‘die in the streets’ and accepts Republican primary voters’ boos for his position.
So tell me why I should believe any of it. Trump’s many inconsistencies, ill-informed positions, impossible promises and flagrant lies don’t leave a lot of room for trust, unless maybe you’re hearing only what you want to hear and ignoring the rest. What liberals feel toward the Donald isn’t hatred so much as distrust. And fear, given that so many otherwise not-exactly-stupid people are falling for him.
719 chars
john (not mccain) said on March 9, 2016 at 10:37 am
“He considers Social Security a deal. On health care, he won’t let people ‘die in the streets’ ”
One of the lowest bars I’ve ever seen, and a sad commentary on the effect of conservatism on people. We can do better than maintaining the godawful status quo.
Not to mention the fact that Donald doesn’t actually have any beliefs. He changes his position on equal marriage rights depending on who his audience is.
424 chars
Joe K said on March 9, 2016 at 10:43 am
Alex,
You trust Hillery???
I don’t trust any of them.
Pilot Joe
67 chars
jcburns said on March 9, 2016 at 11:00 am
Joe, at some point you’ll have to start spelling her name correctly. Maybe after November…?
93 chars
alex said on March 9, 2016 at 11:04 am
Joe, she’s the only candidate of any real substance in this election. She may not be flawless, but at least she doesn’t think voters are stupid and can be bought off with empty promises and lies.
195 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 11:36 am
Betcha no one can even imagine just how comprehensive the rightwing spasms and freakouts and (verbal) ejaculations would be, if HRC (let alone President Obama) asked crowds for pledges of loyalty to HER, rather than – say – the flag of the United States.
Hillary Clinton has gone campaigning door to door (as a kiddo), and has risen to the heights when her husband was elected, and then got herself elected to the United States Senate, and then loyally worked for the man who defeated her for the presidency in 2008.
So as far as trusting Hillary Clinton, there’s no question in my mind. She’s seen the highs and the lows, and she’s done the work – long after the crowds go home.
Hillary has character, whereas Trump is only a character.
But – that said – this is why we hold elections, eh?
831 chars
Sherri said on March 9, 2016 at 11:45 am
Do I trust Hillary? What does that mean when it comes to elected officials? Does it mean that I think she will never lie to me? No, of course not, and I don’t mean just about campaign promises. Every President lies about something, except maybe Carter, and Carter, for all his virtues, was an ineffective President.
Does it mean she won’t disappoint me? I know she’ll disappoint me about something. Obama has disappointed me about any number of things: drones, NSA, education policy. Obamacare, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, treaty with Iraq; on the whole, I’m happy I voted for him.
Does it mean that I think she’ll never compromise? No, compromise is how things get done. Compromise makes people made, because they didn’t get exactly what they want, but hey, governing is hard. One of the things I think makes our government dysfunctional, even down to state and local levels, is that people don’t want to compromise anymore.
Here’s what I trust Hillary to do: work hard to help people beyond the 1%, care about something other than reducing regulations on business, treat climate change as a problem to be addressed rather than a problem to be hidden and denied, continue to work to make healthcare available to more people.
Here’s what I hope, but don’t expect: that her education policy will be less of the corporate-reform model that Obama’s has been, that she will curtail the use of drones, and that she will reduce the surveillance overreach of the government. I hope, but don’t expect, that her time as SoS made her a little less hawkish.
Pilot Joe, why don’t you trust Hillary? What exactly has she done that you don’t trust? Who do you trust among the candidates running, and why?
1710 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 12:00 pm
What Sherri said (especially about education)!
46 chars
Sherri said on March 9, 2016 at 12:05 pm
The Democratic primaries and caucuses all award delegates proportionally, so even though Bernie won Michigan, the closeness of the win meant that he only picked up a net of 7 pledged delegates. Hillary’s much larger win in Mississippi picked up a net of 25 pledged delegates for her.
It’s of course a little more complicated than that, because there are unpledged, unbound superdelegates associated with each state, which is how the Democrats make sure the party elites keep some control over the process.
So, Bernie’s win in Michigan matters, in term of press coverage and fundraising, but not so much in terms of actually getting him closer to the nomination.
668 chars
Sherri said on March 9, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Here’s a FiveThirtyEight article that discusses how the Republican primary would be playing out under Democratic allocation rules: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-would-be-easy-to-stop-under-democratic-rules/
225 chars
Heather said on March 9, 2016 at 12:47 pm
I was listening to some Trump supporters on our local NPR station this morning–one guy said “of course” he wasn’t going to repeal the first amendment and all that, he just says a lot of provocative stuff because he is a New Yorker. I really don’t think there’s any “of course” about it.
287 chars
Heather said on March 9, 2016 at 12:48 pm
And–I’m leaning toward Hillary. I like Bernie’s ideas and I want them to be incorporated into her administration, but I think Hill is the better overall candidate.
164 chars
Deggjr said on March 9, 2016 at 12:58 pm
One of the lowest bars I’ve ever seen, …
I didn’t say it was a high bar, just that Trump is the least objectionable Republican candidate by far. Trump is on the Today Show almost every day. In almost every appearance he’s the person that Thomas Frank writes about (after he gets past the bluster that got him on the show in the first place).
357 chars
Scout said on March 9, 2016 at 1:51 pm
This is an interesting perspective from Charlie Pierce, who was in Flint yesterday.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a42869/bernie-sanders-michigan-auto-industry/
185 chars
CathyC said on March 9, 2016 at 2:03 pm
I liked the Thomas Frank piece. George Lakoff also takes a look at why Trump?
162 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 2:42 pm
I liked that the Thomas Frank piece mentioned one of Fort Wayne’s own – but other than that, I’m still thinking “bullshit”
The political concept that’s been stuck in my brain since I read it in Heather Cox Richardson’s book is “mudsill”
Thomas Frank is half right – Trump’s support is emanating from rust-belt places (like Fort Wayne)…but it is still inextricably entangled with racism and chauvinism…I ain’t the mudsill, the dark people (etc) are!
465 chars
Jerry said on March 9, 2016 at 2:44 pm
Dexter, Maggie was certainly strongly disliked. And in some circles she was indeed hated. My mother, who I had never heard express a political point in her life, used to refer to Maggie as “that b…” Too much of a lady to actually say “bitch”.
The problem t seems to me is that Thatcher had a total belief that she was right and everyone else must by definition be wrong. And having extreme views she was determined to impose them.
I didn’t care for her at all. When we were on holiday in Singapore an assistant at the Botanical Gardens said how proud we must be of Thatcher as our Prime Minister. It took considerable self control not to make an extremely rude response.
678 chars
Jakash said on March 9, 2016 at 2:50 pm
Well, I have a lot of concerns about this election, but Dexter’s post @ #5 pretty much exemplifies what’s at the top of the list. I suppose it fits right in with Bernie winning Michigan, as I don’t doubt that there are many there who would agree with it. I understand wishing that a guy like Sanders could somehow transform this country into a Scandinavian paradise. But if “now I could never vote for her” means either staying home in November or voting for somebody other than Hillary, if she’s the nominee, that’s very scary to me. If somebody as reasonable as Dexter, from a traditional Democratic demographic, is thinking in those terms — well, I just hope that the alternative of a solidly Republican Supreme Court, not to mention that of an even more hawkish foreign policy than Hillary represents, is enough to change his mind before the election.
And “unfit for high office because she is pro-rich and anti-people”? Perhaps she’s chummier with Wall Street types than Bernie, but I think she cares a lot more about regular folks than any of her potential Republican opponents.
1095 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 2:51 pm
Jerry – I’d be a rube, too!
My (uninformed) impression of Thatcher was positive, because she was a woman who achieved power, and who won a naval war.
Really, that’s about all I know about her!
198 chars
wendy (not the dog) said on March 9, 2016 at 3:05 pm
Has there been any discussion / analysis of the Republican primary vote totals being so much higher (more than 100 thousand votes) than the Democratic total? And much higher than Republican totals in recent presidential primaries. As best I could tell, Michigan doesn’t prevent cross-over voting, so I suppose it could be Democrats messing with Republicans, but not so likely with the compelling Democratic election. So who did the Republicans bring out, who are not usual primary voters?
491 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 3:19 pm
Wendy – that did get discussed hereabouts in recent days, and a link to one of Nate Silver’s columns, wherein he puts it in perspective. I don’t have that link at hand, but the point was that there is no correlation between big primary turnouts, and victory in November.
Here is a Nate Silver article that Uncle Google sent me to, which is interesting enough…
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-primaries-presidential-election-2016/
476 chars
wendy (not the dog) said on March 9, 2016 at 3:22 pm
Brian: I completely missed that. Thank you so much.
53 chars
Jerry said on March 9, 2016 at 4:15 pm
Thatcher was certainly a powerful woman who achieved power – I don’t think having a millionaire husband hindered.
She was rabidly anti-Union and set out to preferably destroy them or failing that to emasculate them. She destroyed the miners Union and finished off the coal mining industry. She also believed that private industry could always perform better than state run enterprises. She was instrumental in privatising much nationalised industries and didn’t care if ownership passed into foreign hands. Harold Macmillan, an earlier Conservative Prime Minister referred to “selling off the family silver”. And our current government continues happily to do so even when the industry in question is performing well. Recently one of the rail franchises was taken back into government hands as the franchisee was performing badly and losing money. Run by civil servants it was actually returning a profit to the government. It was sold off as private industry would be able to do a better job. Unbelievable.
1011 chars
Joe K said on March 9, 2016 at 4:53 pm
Why don’t I trust Hillary?
Let’s see, gets paid close to 3/4 a million to give a speech to Wall Street, then expects me to believe, they won’t want a favor in return,claimed she landed under sniper fire in the Middle East, pictures show her receiving flowers, 8 years in the White House and claims she was flat broke, not a dime to her name, yet thinks she is competent enough to have the combination to the country’s bank account, really? She would be the only one not to come out of the presidency with less money then going in.e-mail anyone? And sorry still think she is responsible for the fuck up in Bengazi. Like I said before, I don’t trust anyone on either side, I’m not convinced Trump is the answer but he is definitely not your traditional candidate, but maybe that’s what we need for awhile, someone who doesn’t owe favors to anyone. If nothing else this has got to be a once in a lifetime election.
Pilot Joe
924 chars
Kirk said on March 9, 2016 at 5:10 pm
Thatcher’s “naval war” victory was about as impressive and important as Reagan’s glorious conquest of evil Grenada.
115 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 5:11 pm
Joe – one thing we would have agreed on, back in the day, was Ronald Reagan. I loved that guy, and voted for him 4 times (counting the primaries) – which was 4 more times than Uncle Rush ever did.
That said – President Reagan taught our middle-eastern adversaries that if you punch us in the face, we’ll cut and run (see the aftermath of the catastrophic attack on the Marines at Beirut, where we lost hundreds of soldiers in a flash, and then simply bugged out. Where were the Congressional hearings for that one?)
And – what did RWR do for Iran? Selling them lots and lots of weapons (forget about Fast & Furious – we’re talking Fatwahs and firepower at cut-rate cash prices!) – and then funneling the cash to a ‘secret’ war effort in Central America, which was specifically not authorized by Congress – should have gotten him impeached, convicted, and removed from office.
And yet, every day, Uncle Rush (et al) cream their jeans while fondly remembering their Ronald Reagan fantasies.
By way of saying – I respect you, and we will almost certainaly be cancelling out each other’s vote!
1105 chars
brian stouder said on March 9, 2016 at 5:13 pm
Kirk – good point – except I think an Argentinian sub was one defective torpedo away from inflicting a major naval catastrophe upon the Royal Navy (the Sheffield?)
Those guys could have landed a punch or two – unlike the Grenadines(?)
237 chars
Sherri said on March 9, 2016 at 5:57 pm
If you don’t think Trump owes favors to anybody, Joe, then you’re at best naive.
80 chars
FDChief said on March 9, 2016 at 6:26 pm
The weakness of the Frank piece – that Trump’s appeal is that he “gets it” on economics and trade – is pretty much sunk like the General Belgrano by Krugman’s article today (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/opinion/when-fallacies-collide.html). Trump is many things – expert conman and carny perhaps first among them – but “economist” he isn’t. There have been several pieces discussing how, had he simply invested the pile his daddy left him in a garden-variety mutual fund and bypassed the various bankruptcies and sinkholes he’s pitched money into, he would be wealthier than he is (supposed to be) today.
My issue with Trump is that, while his “policy” positions are typically no worse and, in a few cases, “better” for the non-two-yacht family than the other passengers in the GOP klown kar his attachment to them appears much less firm and he, himself, is a mere sock-puppet for a monstrous ego and an unmoored gluttony. What he will do if handed the reins of executive power is difficult to assess…and that’s kind of the problem.
That and my “liberal” loathing for racism and sexism and all his other “-isms”…
1130 chars
Deborah said on March 9, 2016 at 6:30 pm
I believe that the Clinton’s were broke when Bill left the office. With all of the legal fees they would have had to pay for Bill’s indiscretions and all of the shit that the rightwing threw at them to see what would stick. They were able to make up for it in book and speaker fees, but my heavenly days why wouldn’t they be able to command some high paying speaker fees as the former pres and First Lady. People who don’t have anywhere near those credentials can command some top dollar speaker fees.
501 chars
FDChief said on March 9, 2016 at 6:33 pm
“And sorry still think she is responsible for the fuck up in Bengazi.”
Sorry, Joe. If you still “think” this you’re not really “thinking” by the definition of the term. You’re letting your prejudices and tribal-affiliation hijack your cognitive functions.
And if she’s “responsible” for four deaths in Benghazi what of the GOP, the entire magilla of which excluding Trump still buys into Dubya’s Most Excellent Middle Eastern Adventure that killed, what, four THOUSAND?
491 chars
Joe K said on March 9, 2016 at 7:54 pm
FD,
You have a right to believe she didn’t I have the right to believe she did, the sad part is somebody some where screwed up, 4 people paid for it and no one has been punished for it.
Pilot Joe
198 chars
Charlotte said on March 9, 2016 at 7:57 pm
Really? You guys didn’t see Thatcher for the evil incarnate she was at the time? I was only in college and I hated hated hated her. Was studying in Ireland when they nearly got her in Bath, and I had to call on all the teachings of my good Catholic nuns not to be sorry that she missed that bullet (although I was deeply sorry for the guy who they got instead). The woman who crowed “there is no society, there are individual men and women and there are families” and then proceeded to brutally destroy the unions? Like Reagan’s bullshit “morning in America” campaign — it was all smoke and mirrors designed to distract everyone from the big plan, which was rolling back all ideas of the collective, of social cohesion, of even the kinds of communal projects like public schools and public transport and public parks. I’m with Elvis, Tramp the Dirt Down on the lot of them (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-BZIWSI5UQ)
920 chars
FDChief said on March 9, 2016 at 8:33 pm
Joe: Sorry. We both have the “right to believe” that God is love. As far as Benghazi goes we have to believe what it in the record, what has been unearthed by the ridiculous hours of pointless groping by the various Congressional committees. That says the the then-Secretary of State had less to do with the deaths of four U.S. diplomats in Benghazi than did, say, Gary Berntsen, a former senior CIA officer who is one of Trump’s coterie.
And as noted; the fact that Richard Cheney is still walking around a free man is an offense before Heaven ten thousand times worse than what anyone should – if anyone should – pay for what happened in Libya.
Or are you saying that lying Americans into a cabinet war that killed thousands over years is somehow not as vile as making mistakes that got four people killed in one violent day? Am I understanding you here? Because perhaps “right to believe” is not the word we’re looking for here…
945 chars
LAMary said on March 9, 2016 at 9:22 pm
Joe, who was responsible for the 240 marines who were put in harm’s way in Lebanon and who lost their lives? I don’t recall Ronald Reagan taking any responsibility for that. I don’t recall months of investigations.
215 chars
Sherri said on March 9, 2016 at 9:28 pm
James Fallows was tweeting about Trump’s ignorance about Chinese economic policy just the other day, that China was doing everything they could to keep their currency value high, not low. Krugman is absolutely right on capital flight out of China; just come out here to the West Coast and check out real estate purchases lately. Chinese money has been pouring into the real estate market out here for the last couple of years.
Trump knows nothing, so trying to discern his potential economic policy from his words is a mug’s game.
533 chars
Jolene said on March 9, 2016 at 9:40 pm
“the sad part is somebody some where screwed up, 4 people paid for it and no one has been punished for it.”
Not yet, perhaps, but one of the perpetrators was captured nearly two years ago, and pre-trial proceedings are currently underway.
554 chars
Jolene said on March 9, 2016 at 9:46 pm
I haven’t read all the Benghazi investigation reports,* but the takeaway I’ve gotten from various news reports is that, although the overall security situation could have been improved, nobody in authority either did or failed to do anything that would clearly have altered the outcome of the Benghazi attack. They were grown men who, voluntarily, put themselves in a very dangerous part of the world. Certainly, it is a tragedy that they died, but it need not be a crime–other than, of course, a crime by those who actually did the killing.
*If anyone knows of an article that summarizes the results of the various investigations, I’d be glad to know about it.
667 chars
Joe K said on March 9, 2016 at 10:23 pm
La Mary,
So if it was Reagan’s fault in Lebanon, then instead of being Hillary’s fault it was who?? Obama? He was president, same as Reagan, correct?
Pilot Joe
162 chars