Holy freakin’ monkey on the moon, would you look at these poll numbers in Ohio? If the results come even close to these, they’re going to have to invent a new word for how hard the GOP goes down.
The numbers, for you non-clickers, are from The Columbus Dispatch’s poll, and show the Democrats winning by margins so lopsided they’re positively…Soviet. Ted Strickland over Ken Blackwell in the governor’s race by 36 — that’s thirty-freakin’-six — percentage points. Just for starters. My pal Jennifer Brunner over her opponent in the secretary of state’s race by 21. And so on. And if you’re preparing to play the Liberal Media card in interpreting them, know two things first: The D is not a liberal newspaper, and their poll is well-respected, with a strong track record. (It was one of the few to predict the Reagan landslide in 1980, for starters.)
This is just Ohio, mind you, and Ohio was hit particularly hard by GOP corruption in the last four years. But if Ohio is any kind of bellwether, this is one loud bell.
alex said on November 5, 2006 at 3:04 pm
I’d wager it’s the beleaguered state of Ohio’s Republican party and not a harbinger of things to come right next door here in Indiana. I say this as a former Illinoisian who watched that state’s Republican party implode during the last presidential election year. Corrupt governor out and facing the rest of his life in the federal pokey. Family values senatorial candidate brought down by his own sexual shenanigans. This was the one who’d been favored to win over Barack Obama. The state GOP was in such disarray they didn’t know what to do. They tried to draft some celebrity carpetbaggers to run against Obama at the eleventh hour. Ted Nugent declined, as did Coach Mike Ditka. They finally had a taker — Alan Keyes — who moved from suburban D.C. to suburban Chicago with barely enough time to establish residency. Obama may as well have run unopposed and the GOP would have done better to just leave it that way because Keyes was such a nut job and an embarrassment that he only further damaged the party’s credibility in the state.
And it must be bad. Here we are two years later and the Dem gov, despite being embroiled in a federal scandal himself, is still favored to win by a large margin over what would normally be a formidable Republican opponent.
Bob said on November 5, 2006 at 3:58 pm
The situation sounds promising, but don’t count your chickens when all your eggs are in one basket, or something like that. Never underestimate the power of evil.
My concern on a broader (national) scale is that Democrats may gain power based on public expectation of prompt solutions to messes that evolved with the help of generations of short-sighted policies implemented by both parties. Neither the Dems nor the Repubs collectively are the equivalent of one Messiah, and it ain’t gonna happen that way.
The largely-ignorant electorate’s juvenile expectations of simple solutions for complex problems will likely then result in even greater disillusionment with the presumed party of salvation than with the acknowledged party of damnation, and at the next election the pendulum will reverse direction again and keep going that way for a longlong time. Or stall, and give us a disruptive third-party insurgency.
Damn! That’s good coffee! A little strong, though; maybe I’d better cut back for a while.
nancy said on November 5, 2006 at 7:11 pm
I think you’re right. Hoosiers can go to bed early on Tuesday knowing nothing much will really change there. It’s the state that’s preserved in amber.
brian stouder said on November 5, 2006 at 7:40 pm
whoa there, folks!
There is a very good possibility that three of GOP congressman from Indiana (Chocola – a genuine empty suit), Sodrel, and some other guy will get fired…..and I am STILL holding out hope that Souder gets fired, too.
This weekend, Hayhurst ads are all over various broadcast media, and they are tailored. I heard an Hayhurst ad on the reborn Rock 104 from some group with a name like ‘Committee for the Legalization of Marijuana’; plus white-bread ads on WOWO emphasizing his very strong credentials….plus I agree with another NN.C poster who noted that Souder seems to have adandoned the city (other than yard signs every 20 feet) and emphasized the rural rednecks –
and maybe – just maybe – Souder’s acidic “get out the base, and screw the middle” strategy will collapse ontop of his self-righteous head……..
I would trade away a lot to see Souder make a tearful concession speech, while Hayhurst makes a somewhat stunned victory speech!
(hey – if it couldn’t possibly happen, then we wouldn’t hold elections, right?)
alex said on November 6, 2006 at 12:06 am
I just watched a replay of the IPFW debate between Souder and Hayhurst. This was better than the one I watched the other night. Souder almost made me wince at the end when he went into a melodramatic tirade about how Hayhurst has put words in his mouth and has had his people telephoning Souder’s constituents and maligning Souder’s good character with sordid lies and blah blah blah. Souder’s been on the offensive with playing offended throughout much of this campaign — and it makes him look like such a dick even I feel sorry for him. But it’s heartening at the same time because it shows just how desperate he really is.
I’m fairly impressed with the way Hayhurst handled the ridiculous question about whether the Bible is the literal word of God. He actually managed to one-up the sanctimonious Mr. Souder by pointing to his long record of service to mankind and charitable good works whereas Souder did nothing more than harumph about his piousness as he always does.
Souder has always played the God card in order to bamboozle simpletons into giving him their votes. This time I hope God is listening and sends a tidal wave of votes to the other side.
Bob said on November 6, 2006 at 1:23 am
Early on in the campaign season, I attended a reception for Tom Hayhurst. All the guests were gay men and lesbians, and Hayhurst mingled and socialized comfortably and discussed his general issues as well as those that were of particular interest to the people in attendance.
I’ve known of him for quite a few years because of his outspoken advocacy for progressive causes. I think he’s sincere in his speaking up for the dignity of working people and the importance of making sure that adequate medical care is available for all Americans. I can’t in any way buy into the sometimes-heard contention that there’s little to differentiate the candidates. The differences in their positions are pretty significant.
Marcia said on November 6, 2006 at 10:38 am
Could be that the Republican candidates here just flat out suck. Ken Blackwell is the best the GOP could do? Please.
brian stouder said on November 6, 2006 at 11:44 am
I can see it now – a whiney neoCon, full of self pity (amongst other things) will write a score-settling political book in 2007 called
What’s the Matter With Ohio?
Dwight the Troubled Teen said on November 6, 2006 at 11:44 am
Wow. Makes you wonder what President Kerry thinks about those poll numbers, doesn’t it?
Jim said on November 6, 2006 at 11:51 am
I spoke with a friend of mine (a Republican, mind you) in the 3rd District who told me he is convinced Souder is going to lose. I reminded him that, at this point, the poll numbers aren’t showing that. But he said he is absolutely sure of it, that there is a LOT of untapped anger out there. Despite the narrowing in the pull numbers in the last week, I think tomorrow will be a bigger blowout for the GOP than even they are anticipating.
Danny said on November 6, 2006 at 12:02 pm
Jim, I kinda hope you are right. If the dems win huge, it will serve two needs:
1) Giving the GOP the severe bitch-slapping they need to get back to conservative principals and away from the corruption.
2) Highlighting for the next few years that the dems have very few good ideas.
Added to all of this is the fact the the dems never really got used to the fact that they were the minority party. Expect them to overreact to a victory in a very pompous, elitist, in-your-face sorta ways that is sure to piss a lot of people off.
nancy said on November 6, 2006 at 12:49 pm
Expect them to overreact to a victory in a very pompous, elitist, in-your-face sorta ways that is sure to piss a lot of people off.
In other words, pretty much exactly the way the Republicans did in the wake of Bush v. Gore?
Danny said on November 6, 2006 at 12:52 pm
Nah, the unsightly celebration was thankfully squelched back then. If you recall, it was almost right up until Bush got sworn in that the outcome was tied up in countless recounts, hanging chads, and court battles.
Marcia said on November 6, 2006 at 1:47 pm
Danny said: Expect them to overreact to a victory in a very pompous, elitist, in-your-face sorta ways
I’d really be surprised if they did. Pomposity is much more of a Republican trait.
Judith said on November 6, 2006 at 1:48 pm
Mark Souder, himself, had a letter to the editor published in Friday’s News-Sentinel, lamenting “Tom Hayhurst’s campaign has been unusual in its nasty character attacks”. (With his record its hard to see how he wrote this, he must have had his fingers crossed.) Souder again blamed Hayhurst’s campaign for the letters to the editor making “personal integrity attacks” and that “include completely false information about me”, and “smear tactics instead if debate of the issues” Again, no one can control the letters for or against them submitted to a newspaper. My letter was thoroughly fact-checked! I have hope Dr. Hayhurst will win and we will have a representative we can be proud of.
nancy said on November 6, 2006 at 2:08 pm
Tomorrow’s headline: SOUDER FELLED BY ‘BOLT FROM BLUE’ Subhead: Witnesses baffled by lightning strike on otherwise perfect day.
mary said on November 6, 2006 at 2:27 pm
For the Republicans to get back to conservative principles would mean abandoning nearly every neocon idea they’ve adopted since the Reagan administration. I’ve never been a conservative, but I could at least understand where people like Goldwater were coming from. The whole neocon/Christian right thing we’ve had jammed down our throats for the last twenty five years has nothing to do with Conservativsm. It’s about not just big government, but huge, intrusive, all over your privacy and beliefs government.
Marcia said on November 6, 2006 at 3:03 pm
Mary said: “The whole neocon/Christian right thing we’ve had jammed down our throats for the last twenty five years has nothing to do with Conservativsm. ”
Nor does it have anything to do with true Christianity.
ashley said on November 6, 2006 at 4:24 pm
You forget, Ohio-based Diebold has the voting machines.
I predict the GOP keeps everything, and Urosevich goes to jail; or the Dems win.
brian stouder said on November 6, 2006 at 4:37 pm
I predict a 56 seat pick-up by the Democratic party in the House, and 6 seats in the Senate – a blow-out.
In addition to my earlier tea-leaf reading, I noticed that the stalwarts that one hears nattering in the vapors (Sean Hannity’s radio show runs in the evening; also Uncle Rush’s voice wafting through the office in the middle of the day; also the various pundits on the cable shows) at this time LAST week were playing the expectations-game, saying “What if the Dems DON’T win the House? Picking up seats will look like a LOSS!!” –
and this weekend, that line disappeared, too – so that all they can say is ‘maybe the GOP will hold the Senate’…..I think the magical ‘internal polling numbers’ are telling them that the GOP is in for a historic wipeout – ala the 1994 Democratic congressional defeat.
The race got nationalized, and the GOP loses on precisely that ground
brian stouder said on November 6, 2006 at 5:31 pm
my (lovely) wife just called and said “Guess what just went past the house?” To which I replied “The Oscar Mayer Weinermobile” –
and she said no – but I was on the right track. So I gave up – and she said it was a two-horse buckboard wagon, carring a guy with a bullhorn exhorting people to vote for someone I never heard of (must be a schoolboard candidate)…
Mind you, down a street that is fairly busy (especially Monday at 4 pm, with school buses and after-work traffic; not to mention a fairly busy firehouse).
Anyway – it made an impression, and got a laugh…..
mary said on November 6, 2006 at 6:18 pm
You’ve got Rush Limbaugh playing in your office? We get morning prayers here, but I think I’d have issues with Rush piped into my office.
brian stouder said on November 6, 2006 at 7:57 pm
The purchasing agent has it playing in his office, and from there it wafts.
Hannity I hear a few minutes of each week – if I am running an errand or otherwise driving somewhere after 6 pm. Usually, after a few minutes of him, its time to press ‘play’ on the mp3 player (Pearl Jam on shuffle play)
mary said on November 6, 2006 at 8:43 pm
I’ve got the Ipod in a speaker thingie here in my office so I don’t go crackers when I’m here alone, but they frown on tunes while you work.
Madeline Peyroux and the new Bob Dylan cds are what I’ve been listening to lately. And the T Bone Burnett cd. My son has loaded Moby’s “We are Made of Stars” on my cd player for me, which was pretty nice of him, and older son put Dylan’s “Blood on the Tracks” on there.
alex said on November 6, 2006 at 10:31 pm
They won’t let us have speakers on our computers and for good reason, I’m sure. My secretary — who’s always got the Drudge Report up as her home page — has a small radio that’s always tuned into one of the local freak stations, barely audible so I can’t fault her particularly. (It’s only when she complains about her husband abusing her that I feel she crosses the line into my space since she obviously has no plans to do anything about it except complain.)
brian stouder said on November 7, 2006 at 7:59 am
Well, I took our 7 year old daughter and we went to the polls this morning. It’s raining, at least in northeast Indiana. In years past, this would be considered ‘Republican weather’ – since the GOP could win more easily if the D’s stayed home….but this year I think the GOP needs to try and match the Democrats’ will to turnout (nationwide – but even here in ‘[frozen in]Amber waves of Grain Indiana’)
Anyway, Shelby was suitably impressed with the whole thing, and the poll workers let her accompany me right through the process. We showed up at 6:30 am – and sailed though a 6 page ballot fairly quickly. Here’s hoping y’all have a similarly pleasant experience at the polls