The odds.

I was up to my nostrils in the Truth Squad today, but enough noise came through the static to bring me the mini-story — micro-story — of Nate Silver.

I’m a big fan of Silver, not because he’s a lefty, but because he has a pretty spectacular track record. A short one, yes, but pretty impressive. He doesn’t get excited by much other than data. So of course some people hate him.

This Deadspin thing sums it up pretty well. As does this New Republic thing. (Link fixed.) Apparently there’s some pushback to Silver’s consistent projection — for months now — that Barack Obama has a 79 percent chance of being re-elected. It’s gone up and down a few points, but the race has never been nearly as close as the horserace narrative would have you believe. At least in the electoral college. The popular vote will be close, but close enough for hand grenades, anyway.

What his model comes down to are probabilities:

That probabilities do not ensure outcomes—something every blackjack player who has busted while hitting against a face card has long known—has escaped Silver’s detractors. Brendan Nyhan at CJR and Ben Jacobs at Daily Download have emptied an ample volume of bullets into this barrel of fish. Ezra Klein put it succinctly: “If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesn’t mean Silver’s model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. That’s a pretty good chance!”

But Silver and his defenders have run aground on the same problem sports statisticians used to face: the failure of laymen to grasp the difference between predictions and probabilities. “The criticism of Nate is that he’s predicting something, when he’s trying to explain that’s not what he’s doing at all,” said Dave Cameron, a baseball statistician at FanGraphs who briefly worked with Silver at BP. “He’s putting the odds on something.” Cameron added, “It is kind of like what we do in baseball. We recognize there are multiple outcomes. A utility infielder can hit a home run off [reigning Cy Young winner Justin] Verlander. It’s just not probable.”

Romney could still win. But — Silver’s model says — it’s just not as likely.

Now, a waltz through the bloggage:

Sixteen storm tales from Sandy

A kale salad recipe. Because kale is the new spinach, right?

And I should have one more, but honestly — I’m so out of gas they need another word for it. Have a great weekend, all.

Posted at 12:25 am in Current events |
 

69 responses to “The odds.”

  1. Sherri said on November 2, 2012 at 2:16 am

    Silver finally did what you should always do with the innumerate who persist in arguing with them: bet them. Unfortunately, it looks like everybody’s just going to harrumph instead of putting up.

  2. JwfromNJ said on November 2, 2012 at 3:18 am

    Some of those amazing back and forth sliding before and after pics of devastation at the N.J. Shore.

    Still haven’t heard from my parents – I did have their local police check on their well being. My sister gof off a 30 second phone call. In thier town – Avob-by-the-Sea (yes it’s snooty) the beach is pretty much gone, the streets filled with sand, an 11 foot storm surged washed across the island.

    They had a gorgeous boardwalk with a pavillion that had a formal restaurant, a fish shck type place, a gift shop, and the beach patrol offices. All gone. They got water up to the front door.

    I’m worried because my mom didn’t stock up, or buy things like a radio, but she did fill all the tubs and every pot and pan she owned. Now it’s going to get cold there and plenty of people are going to be worse off.

    If you look at slide one – the Mantaloking Inlet, their house is about 1.5 miles away.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/11/before_and_after_sandy_photos.html#incart_maj-story-1

  3. Deborah said on November 2, 2012 at 3:19 am

    The rightwing is doing what they always do about everything, saying because they believe it, it is so. Because they believe in their hearts that Romney will win, he will win. I really think that’s what is going on with them, I actually don’t think it’s desperation. I know I was shocked, completely shocked when Bush won a second term, so I could be shocked again.

  4. Jolene said on November 2, 2012 at 7:51 am

    JW, those before-and-after pictures are horrible. I hope you are able to get in touch with your parents soon.

    I’m in awe of what’s happened there, and the more detail I see the more horrified I am. And I’m even more undone by thinking about the issues that are going to arise as efforts to rebuild in this very complex environment go forward. Just unbelievable.

    It’s good that there are some reasonably sharp people in charge. Bloomberg, Christie, and Cuomo all seem to bright, effective problem-solvers. And, if Obama remains in office, they’ll have good support at the federal level. Still, the economic, environmental, and social issues to be addressed are mind-boggling.

    Just heard that they are using C-130s to fly utility equipment in from the West Coast, and 50,000 repair people are coming from all over the U.S. and Canada. Hope someone is there to tell them where to go and what to do. That’s a lot of people to organize.

  5. coozledad said on November 2, 2012 at 8:02 am

    Deborah: I try to at least feign shock at the candidates that sadass procession of human muck vomits up very cycle. They’re counting on wearing your responses down to the point where they can repackage the shit-flinger of their choice and sell him to you as a businessman or war hero or policy wonk when in reality the babbling fuck can’t chew his own food.
    What gets me the most is how for all the anti-totalitarian posturing of the Republicans and their last great manufactured existential crisis with the Soviets, there isn’t a goddamn one of them that would be out of place waving from a balcony at the May Day parade.
    Look at John McCain’s gruesome old face in this video, and the way his neck snaps around at the slightest sign of “disrespect”. You can tell if he had access to a ground attack fighter, he’d be willing to burn a few rice farmers to get that puppet.
    Romney’s the same way. Their fathers ought to be kicked repeatedly in the balls for the generating the “filthy bursts of semen” they sprang from.

  6. beb said on November 2, 2012 at 8:13 am

    The attacks on Nate Silver seems like a last desperate attempt by Republicans to convince themselves that Romney will win. It reminds me somewhat of this article
    http://wonkette.com/488362/sad-pundits-why-wont-insiders-tell-us-who-will-win-the-election
    In which a reporter complains that he doesn’t know who’s ahead because both party tell him their man is. Talk about lazy reporting.

    And Trump comes late to the moving-Jeep-to-China lie. Is he just slow or is this an attempt to catapult the bullshit over the media?

    What amounts to our local hardware store was interviewed a couple days ago about sales post-Sandy. People were stocking up on work clothes (Carhart!) tools and … snowblowers. I couldn’t imagine why they would want snowblowers to deal with a hurricane. The next next I read about the 3-4 feet of snow dropped on the higher portions of West Virginia…. The weirdest pictures coming out of the storms are the aerial shots of housing tracts covered in what looked like snow but turns out to be sand. Wow! That is a lot of moving sand.

  7. coozledad said on November 2, 2012 at 8:27 am

    This is how Romney talks at people who agree with him.
    He’s Queeg from the Caine Mutiny. And this was the best they could get.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=TxMD02zU9SE

  8. Dorothy said on November 2, 2012 at 8:37 am

    I haven’t read every one of the 16 stories yet, but I did have to pause to share this hilarious quote with you guys. From Bensonhurst, where a few neighborhood guys were trying to clear a downed tree that was blocking their cul-de-sac: (“You’re a fucking asshole and you’re old!” shouted one of the neighborhood guys directing traffic at someone who dared to honk.) I’m going to have to remember to use that sometime.

  9. Mark P said on November 2, 2012 at 8:42 am

    The right wing has the same problem with Nate Silver that they have with facts in general. They’re the ones who clap to save Tinkerbell.

  10. Dorothy said on November 2, 2012 at 8:48 am

    Is it my fault Mark P’s comment is italicized? Here’s my attempt at fixing it! (I did try to stop the italics in my comment but I screwed it up as usual. I think it’s right this time.)

  11. Mark P said on November 2, 2012 at 9:26 am

    Let’s see. Do I look Italian?

  12. Dorothy said on November 2, 2012 at 10:04 am

  13. Kaye said on November 2, 2012 at 10:09 am

    Dorothy – Do you have VIP pass to see Shelly O?

  14. Dorothy said on November 2, 2012 at 10:18 am

    No I do not – I actually already saw her two years ago in Columbus. We are heading to Pittsburgh tonight after work. Have to look at nursing homes tomorrow for Mike’s aunt. It’s causing much excitement here on the campus, though! I work with the current head of the Democratic Party of Knox County and the former head, and both are getting to meet her privately.

    I hope I didn’t break nn.c permanently. I swear I looked up the proper way to stop italics in html and I did it in my last two or three comments, but apparently I caused a disruption in The Force. I am also sort of delighting in the idea that you are all having a good laugh at my expense!!

  15. Deborah said on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 am

    I wanna see how I look in Italics.

  16. Julie Robinson said on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 am

    Laughing with you, Dorothy. We need uncle JC to step in and sort us out.

  17. Dexter said on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 am

    What a day this is starting out to be. The crew is here installing the new furnace. Well…the power went out just then…it’s now two hours later and the furnace is installed and I have heat. I wish the fix was this easy for the poor unfortunates on Staten Island and down the shore and out in The Rockaways and all around Long Island. Ninety per cent of Long Island has no power. Still, we have Frank Beckmann on WJR-AM downplaying the suffering as “normal weather behavior…this wasn’t even a number three hurricane…” and all the time there are zombie-like humans staggering all around in New York. Beckmann just does not have a clue.

  18. nancy said on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 am

    Fixed. The tags are bracket-i-bracket and bracket-slash-i-bracket. (Or whatever you call the character you get when you shift/comma, shift/period.) You had the slash *after* the i, whoever made the mistake.

  19. coozledad said on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 am

    I’ve converted a couple of threads to all italics. After a while someones goes to the room in back and gives an old guy an airline bottle of liquor. He drinks it, comes out front, pushes a button and goes back to his room to pass out again.

  20. brian stouder said on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 am

    Have to look at nursing homes tomorrow for Mike’s aunt

    We (my four brothers and I) are starting the ‘long goodbye’ with our mom; things took a turn over the past week, and now we’re in the land of big decisions. The Very Short version: 1. it reminds me of jury duty. And 2. The women (Pam and the other DILs) are the indispensable elements

    PS – I recall whizzing italics all over several of the Proprietress’s threads, and it therefore comforts me to see some of the smart folks do the same thing!

  21. Dorothy said on November 2, 2012 at 10:53 am

    Yes I made the mistake originally, then went and looked up how to do it correctly. Which I attempted to do. But it was beyond the point of no return by then I guess. I figured once Nancy took hold of the steering wheel once again she’d fix it.

    I’m sorry about your mom, Brian. Mike’s aunt is getting weaker all the time and it seems so cruel a way to exit this world. She used to argue with him and complain out the wazoo. But lately when he calls her she talks for a little and then wants to get off the phone in a hurry. I think she barely has the strength to hold the phone in her hand. She’s been in the VA system since her stroke on 9/16. I haven’t seen her since the end of August. I imagine tomorrow she’s going to look simply awful.

  22. Ann said on November 2, 2012 at 10:56 am

    My favorite part of the Nate Silver story was this tweet from him. https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/263705919349735426

  23. Sue said on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 am

    Dexter, I came across one of the evening newscasts last night during a story on the Staten Island mess. Very annoyed to see Diane Sawyer wrap up the segment by saying something like “and we’ll keep an eye on this to make sure everything that was promised is delivered”.
    Why thanks Diane, how very journalistic of you. Glad to know you’re on top of it and the coverage of this disaster is going to be more than just following people around to staged photo ops. About damned time.
    I think that Staten Island may be the exception rather than the rule in how response to the hurricane will unfold, and reasonable people are looking at Christie and Obama’s interaction and thinking “Oh, yeah, I forgot that’s how it’s supposed to work”; and listening to Cuomo talking about how it’s time to stop arguing about what’s causing hundred-year floods every two years and start thinking our way through to new solutions, and they’re realizing that this is what “American Exceptionalism” really means.
    We may have turned a corner here. I hope so.

  24. Scout said on November 2, 2012 at 11:17 am

    NPR’s Mara Liarson (hack tool for the right) had another one of her gee-whiz fart noise reports featuring some loser in the storm area who was without power for days but managed to use his cell phone to come up with some wild ass possibilities for this “too close to call” election, one of which was the scenario where Rmoney is POTUS and Biden is VPOTUS. Pat and I just shook our heads.

    Remember in 2004 when every other voter interviewed (likely by Liarson and her ilk) opined that Bush should get four more years so he could fix the mess he made in the first term? Well I do, and find it interesting that narrative is absent in 2012 when we have an incumbent with a good record that actually deserves a second term.

    Half this country is either greedy or stupid or both.

  25. LAMary said on November 2, 2012 at 11:18 am

    I helped my ex find a place for his father a few years ago and I had great assistance from a company called A Place for Mom.

    One of my brothers lives on the northeastern end of Long Island. His power is out but he’s got telephone service. He’s living in the summer house we had when we were kids. My father bought a big chunk of property at tax sale in the early fifties, and built our house on the northeast facing beach. There were only two other houses on the half mile long road, and at the very end of the point was a yacht club. Not a posh yach club. A nice white building with blue trim, three rooms on the ground floor, one second floor room where you could watch the sailboat races. Anyway.. the yacht club bailed and we were left with the building, which we converted to a rental house. It was a great place to rent for the summer. Water on three sides, a view of the old mansions on Shelter Island, and lots of clean sandy beach. Now it’s gone. Not damaged or demolished. Just gone. The refrigerator is about a mile down the beach. There are random belongings here and there, but the building is gone. My brother’s house is ok, just lots of tree debris to clean up, and his charter boats (he does fishing charters) are fine. No more yacht club, though.

    Here’s a link to a google satellite map. You can see the yacht club at the end of the point.

    http://goo.gl/maps/ar4nq

  26. Jason T. said on November 2, 2012 at 11:31 am

    Deborah @ 15: I wanna see how I look in Italics.

    You look lovely, though it makes your comments seem somewhat oblique and slanted to the right.

  27. Mark P said on November 2, 2012 at 11:40 am

    I suspect that many, if not most people living in such an area don’t truly understand the physical, geological fundamentals of those areas. A couple of weeks before Sandy my wife and I visited the Outer Banks of NC. If Sandy had hit strongly there, a lot of places would have simply disappeared. An island, or parts of an island, would just not be there any more. They and other barrier islands all the way up and down the Atlantic coast are basically just sand. They are continuously changing, losing sand, gaining sand, washing away, washing up, washing down … They are not permanent fixtures. We are conditioned to think geological change happens over many, many years. Hundreds or thousands, or even tens of thousands. We even talk about changes on a geological scale, to mean extremely long-term. From the perspective of a human lifetime, geological features seem permanent, but they aren’t. And even within that time span, significant changes often occur. Barrier islands are particularly vulnerable to sudden change.

    And that’s my philosophical meanderings for today.

  28. alex said on November 2, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    Hey, on a brighter note, here’s what God intended to happen to Richard Mourdock. :)

  29. nancy said on November 2, 2012 at 12:21 pm

    That margin sounds a bit large, but I don’t doubt the race is very close. What a fall from the giddy heights of the primary, eh?

  30. Charlotte said on November 2, 2012 at 12:45 pm

    Those slider pictures are astonishing — and I hate to say it, but they make the case for not rebuilding in those areas. That’s a lot of houses build on unstable beach sand … We face similar issues out here in the West with people who have built very expensive homes in ridiculous places, homes that then have to be protected during wildfires at great expense and endangerment of the firefighters.

    Of course, when you’ve been wiped out, all you want is to fix it all like it was.

  31. Joe K said on November 2, 2012 at 1:03 pm

    Alex,
    Thought you didn’t believe in God.
    LOL,
    Pilot Joe

  32. alex said on November 2, 2012 at 1:21 pm

    It’s news like this that makes me say “Yes, there is a God!”

  33. Sue said on November 2, 2012 at 1:24 pm

    Alex:
    and He works in mischievous ways.

  34. jcburns said on November 2, 2012 at 1:26 pm

    Mark’s “do I look Italian?” was not only funny, but (as many of you know) ties into from where italics came. To quote Wikipedia: “This style is called “italic” for historical reasons. Calligraphic typefaces started to be designed in Italy, for chancery purposes.”

    Huh? Chancery purposes?

    “The later cancelleresca corsiva (“cursive chancery hand”) in which the pen was held slanted at a forty-five-degree angle for speed could also produce beautiful calligraphic work.
    It was adapted as the model for the italic typeface developed by Aldus Manutius in Venice…In fifteenth-century Italy the chancery hand was employed in correspondence and everyday business, and for documents of minor formal importance.
    In sixteenth-century England, this became known as the ‘Italian hand’ to distinguish it from the angular, cramped and gothic English chancery hand that had developed from the earlier tradition.”

    I’m waving at all of you with an Italian hand. Be careful with those angle-brackets (that’s what they’re called, Nancy.)

  35. Sherri said on November 2, 2012 at 1:52 pm

    PACs spending money to get charter-friendly school board members in California: http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_21896419/pac-money-floods-local-school-board-races

  36. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 1:53 pm

    When did President Obama actually make a promise about unemployment? I don’t think he did. But that is Willy’s big charge out of the gate today. Of course he’s perfectly comfortable claiming that unemployment is higher than when Obama took office. Just Lying for the Lord. And moron Americans buying that shit.

    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/bikini-graph/

    RMoney conveniently ignores the destruction of teaching and first responder jobs by the GOPer House of Representatives. And the steady job growth following the administration’s stimulus that didn’t work.

    Where did this sadly asinine idea that a bidnessman would make a good President come from? Right out of Uranus, right into the magic UTrou:

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/31/the-wrong-resume/

    And were this idiotic mythology even remotely true, did Willard ever balance a budget? Nope. Run a business anywhere but into the ground so he could legitimately rape the employee pension fund? Nope. Build a business from his own ingenuity? Nope. Create a single job that wasn’t for a CPA adapt at hiding cash overseas? Nope.

    I always thought those things were greater than and less than.

  37. mark said on November 2, 2012 at 2:06 pm

    Prospero-

    Obama’s promise was this:

    “When President Obama proposed his “stimulus plan” he promised it would keep unemployment below 8 percent and would create 3,675,000 jobs.”

    Just google “obama unemployment promise” and you will get hundreds of sources.

  38. Sherri said on November 2, 2012 at 2:12 pm

    If you’ve been wondering if Sally Jenkins would ever comment on Lance Armstrong (she co-authored two books with him), the answer is, don’t hold your breath: http://jimromenesko.com/2012/10/23/why-sally-jenkins-hasnt-written-about-lance-armstrong-lately/

    I know Prospero is a fan of hers, as am I, but she’s being gutless here.

  39. Dave said on November 2, 2012 at 2:31 pm

    I just had a call from someone from the Indiana Republican Party, asking me to vote on election day. He ended his spiel by saying, “And, we hope you’ll vote for Richard Mourdock”.

    I couldn’t help it, I burst out into laughter and told him, “There’s no way, I can’t stand that guy”. He laughed a real laugh and told me, “I hear that a lot”.

    So, Alex, I think there’s lots of hope he won’t get put into the Senate, Indiana has enough embarrassments.

  40. del said on November 2, 2012 at 2:36 pm

    JC, I am accustomed to being on the receiving end of an Italian hand wave.

  41. alex said on November 2, 2012 at 2:42 pm

    Just google “obama unemployment promise” and you will get hundreds of sources.

    That’s because it’s one of those right-wing memes that refuses to die. The numbers came from the Congressional Budget Office, as a matter of fact. Here’s Anderson Cooper going after one lying sack of shit for repeating that discredited canard.

  42. brian stouder said on November 2, 2012 at 2:51 pm

    By the way, and not for nothing – a comment on the Obama economy. My lovely wife has been out of the paid workforce for something like 14 years. She is a very intelligent woman (possibly excepting her taste in men, but we digress!) and “with it” when it comes to Facebook/internet/computer/touch-screen phones and the like. A few months ago, she indicated she might want to get a job, and she recently interviewed at the first place she applied, and got herself hired. Boom.

    So there’s my 100% true and valid anecdote about the Obama economy in a city and a county and a state that will go for Romney just as soon as the polls close on Tuesday.

  43. brian stouder said on November 2, 2012 at 3:10 pm

    PS – this is where Pam now works:

    http://www.artandsoulboutiqueblog.com/

  44. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 3:15 pm

    Mark, Sorry but that is bullshit. Those sources you cite are Free Republic, Lying asshole Willard RMoney, Steve Doocy, Breitbart diarrhoea and other sociopaths. The President never said any such thing, and voting for a guy that’s best shot is to insist he did is pathetic, and in a reasonable world should get the claimant removed from voting rolls for idiocy.

    Here’s a clue Mark. If Willard said something, it’s more likey to be a lie than the truth. Mittens is the only human being that lies more than the internet. Like “We built that.” Read about the self-made myth:

    http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/108815/tagg-romney-myth-self-reliance

    Here’s a mealy-mouthed explanation of RMoney’s big lie from the equivalency worms at Politifact:

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/11/paul-ryan/ryan-obama-promised-unemployment-would-not-exceed-/

    The President would wipe the floor with the pretty boy with the stupid Palin name.

    It’s the Italian full forearm that I like, Del. And no, I’m not Italian, but I was married for years to the granddaughter and namesake of a somewhat smalltime Boston mobster. Poppa bought my erstwhile FIL a Bachelor of ME from MIT, matter of fact.

  45. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 3:52 pm

    Congratulations to Pam on her new job Brian. The new place of bidness reminds me of Putney Swope:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obpEz_U6flE&feature=related

  46. Suzanne said on November 2, 2012 at 4:14 pm

    Wow. I’m envious that Brian’s wife got a job that quickly! I am employed but need to find a different job and have been looking big time for over a year. In my last interview, I kept being asked if I could keep up with a fast paced job. Why not just call me old.

    I saw Nate Silver on some interview show the other night. He’s a strange guy but I guess that’s why he’s so good a statistics and probability.

    What worries me about Mourdock is things like this comment on the News-S story:
    “I am confident that Hoosiers are not dumb enough to believe Donnelly’s lies. I know I will vote for Mourdock because it is a vote to repeal Obamacare and save the nation from falling off the fiscal cliff.”

  47. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    Right, Suzanne. That fiscal cliff the President created, not Boehner and the Teabangers, including, prominently, Ayn Ryan. Murricans are dumb as grunt.

  48. alex said on November 2, 2012 at 4:59 pm

    Distressing to know that so many people have been hoodwinked, Suzanne, but anyone moronic enough to believe those things would probably be institutionalized right now–if the government hadn’t defunded all the booby hatches. I wouldn’t worry, not at all. Mourdock is history.

  49. brian stouder said on November 2, 2012 at 5:06 pm

    Prospero – the silliest damned thing I heard on the am radio dial this week was from a caller who – seemingly seriously – advocated the idea that if you get welfare, you should NOT get to vote!

    Hmmmmm.

    So then, my question would be: when the lawyers get done defining what “welfare” is, how many people would be left on the voting rolls? Even leaving aside people employed directly by the government (like, for example, soldiers, sailors, aviators and marines), people who drive down the interstate highways are all off the voting rolls, right? And if you have a bank account (and therefore FDIC benefits) you’re off the voting rolls, yes? What about people who work for or patronize air travel? They’re all dependent on FAA rules and regulations and air traffic control, yes?

    It seems to me that Romney’s core constituency is a gated community

    PS – Alex – I really and truly hope you’re right.

    And indeed, if Mourdock could cause collateral damage to Romney, then that would be a very nice daily double!

  50. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 5:16 pm

    Brian, I’d say that getting Salt Lake City sized corporate Olympics welfare should probably prevent somebody from running for office. And the SSI and other fed programs Ayn Ryan used to get ehere he is? Holy shit. Socialisss moochers running as GOPers.

  51. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 5:54 pm

    Jobs? Willy Windsock is lying as fast as his liverlips will move.

    Debt and the fiscal cliff? Just ask Willard. Not Boner’s doing at all, nor Ayn Ryan’s, neither.

  52. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 6:35 pm

    If Tom Petty were a girl:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcXB3eWl1KE

    Amazing SG solos out of left field, turn the chord progression on its head.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAJOXrnPIUg

  53. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 6:36 pm

    Climate change? What? Who? Where?

    http://thinkprogress.org/progress-report/pile-on/

  54. Deborah said on November 2, 2012 at 7:26 pm

    Jason T, ha ha ha. Right leaning? I must be taking after my sister, horrors.

  55. Sherri said on November 2, 2012 at 8:21 pm

    So much for the hope that mailing in my ballot early would slow down the robocallers – six so far today, and still several hours of prime calling time ahead.

  56. Little Bird said on November 2, 2012 at 9:14 pm

    I got a call from a robocaller, a republican one. I relished being able to say “I already voted, not interested”. To the next one I’m just gonna yell “GO OBAMA!”

  57. Sherri said on November 2, 2012 at 9:19 pm

    Unfortunately, the calls I’m getting now are recordings, so I can’t even yell at them!

  58. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 9:22 pm

    Whoa, thanks for the tip Mark. Google, you say? Who’da thought? Endless source of bullshit backup for every reactionary lie. I assume you have mined those depths to locate one time President Obama “promised” anything about unemployment rates. No? Keep looking. It’s all about the tubes.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f99PcP0aFNE

    Little Bird, You go.But, you know, thanks for that tip. I also looked up Bushco and 9/11. You’d be amazed how many people think it was an inside job. All in the tubes.

  59. Little Bird said on November 2, 2012 at 9:54 pm

    Let me clarify. I’m talking back to recordings. Largely because it amuses me.

  60. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 10:08 pm

    Seriously Mark. It’s right there next to where Al Gore claimed to have invented the internet. Them mofos are lying to you, son. And you are spooning it up.

  61. del said on November 2, 2012 at 10:18 pm

    Nice music link Prospero. Think I’ll remember that band.

  62. Prospero said on November 2, 2012 at 11:19 pm

    del, That young woman is an astounding singer and songwriter. I do think she’s the distaff side of Tom Petty, and I’ve thought that guy was a genius since I saw the heartbreakers at the Rat in Kenmore Square and had never heard of them before. “Since We Parted Ways” is gorgeous, and the vocal is so heartfelt it crushes me.

    And Mark, you know, you can surf the tubes and find excuses for Bushco winning Volusia Co. in ’00 and Cuyahoga in ’04, too, but I say bullshit. You can also find whackjobs that insist John Kerry wasn’t a war hero in the war he decided was a fraud, and W didn’t dodge the draft while supporting the war. Google proves everything, right?

    I’m still waiting for that Obama %age unempployment video. Mitt isn’t lying for my Lord. Mine believes in Matthew 22: 36-44. Whatever you do for the least of my brethren. That is Christianity. Not granny-starving, zombie-eyed, didn’t-know-Ayn-Rand-was-an atheist Teabanger ahole.

    34 But when the Pharisees heard that Jesus had silenced the Sadducees, they gathered themselves together. 35 One of them, [n]a lawyer, asked Him a question, testing Him, 36 “Teacher, which is the great commandment in the Law?” 37 And He said to him, “‘You shall love the Lord your God with all your heart, and with all your soul, and with all your mind.’ 38 This is the great and [o]foremost commandment. 39 The second is like it, ‘You shall love your neighbor as yourself.’ 40 On these two commandments depend the whole Law and the Prophets.

    Sound like GOPers? Nope.

  63. brian stouder said on November 2, 2012 at 11:39 pm

    Prospero – your Heartless Bastards links are pretty good stuff.

    I must be an old guy at heart; Florence and the Machine immediately grabbed hold of me, and hasn’t let go.

    Leaving aside her obvious good good good stuff (like Dog Days are Over) there’s this one, which is very Halloweenie – in its way

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EIeUlvHAiM

    Plus, she’s beautiful, so there’s that

  64. Dexter said on November 2, 2012 at 11:42 pm

    The cable companies that service my Ohio area slowly eliminated every Fort Wayne TV station and the newspaper boxes and the newsstand disappeared years ago, so I had no idea Mourdock is losing. This is great news.
    President Obama was in Hilliard, Ohio today, probably about a three minute drive from my daughter’s house on a normal day. He was also in Lima, Ohio to address a packed house. He has at least three more days of campaigning here.

  65. Kaye said on November 3, 2012 at 12:12 am

    7000 political commercials scheduled on the Columbus airwaves 8am Fri- 5pm Tue. Contemplated spending the weekend at our favorite Amish country rental but it is booked. I don’t have the willpower to stay dompletely away from tv,internet and cell phone on my own but if the days are sunny I will be spending them outdoors.

  66. David C. said on November 3, 2012 at 8:05 am

    I want whoever invented caller ID to get a Nobel. When I hear the ghastly robocalls people are receiving I can just shake me head in disbelief. With caller ID, not watching local TV, and not listening to the radio I may just survive this election intact.

  67. ROGirl said on November 3, 2012 at 9:24 am

    It’s not just the multiple daily robocalls (agree with David C on caller ID), it’s also the mailers that are coming in 3 or 4 a day for all the local candidates and ballot proposals (for and against). It seems like we had been spared the national ads until recently, but they are running nonstop now too.

  68. Basset said on November 3, 2012 at 9:48 am

    Early voted on the first day, muzzleloader deer season opened this morning so I am in a tree stand waiting for a freezer-worthy one to show up. No deer yet but the squirrels & chipmunks are running around making all kinds of racket.

  69. beb said on November 3, 2012 at 8:24 pm

    Get enough squirrels and who needs a deer?