This was one of the season’s big weekends for us — Tox-away day at our local public-works department AND Theatre Bizarre.
We missed Tox-away day; it finished at 1 p.m., and we weren’t ready until 1:30. That left Theatre Bizarre, which did not disappoint. The event is now spread into four nights over two weekends, and I really hope the cash flow works out on this arrangement — even with the high ticket prices, it’s an event that barely breaks even, or so I’m told — because I like it a lot better. The last time we went, every inch of the Masonic Temple was elbow-to-elbow. There was a lot more breathing room this year, and that made for a more pleasant experience for me and my date:
I wish I had more pictures to show you, but that’s the other thing about the TB: It’s a very red-lit event. (Except in the bathrooms, which are green.) If I’d had time to really mess with the exposure and use flash and so on, I might have gotten some better shots, but I’m increasingly unwilling to interrupt my experience of life by worrying that I should be Instagramming something. Sorry.
Of course, we were there to support these girls:
Not a bad gig for them, although they were staged in one of the smaller spaces within the Temple. (There are several.) But so, so red. Kate was having a fit over her costume beforehand; the one she’d ordered didn’t arrive in time, so she had to scrounge one up from the thrift store. I should have told her no one would notice. Either that, or my old eyes are just incapable of seeing in this light range, which is entirely possible.
Anyway, the artist behind TB describes it less as a party but as an immersive, participatory art installation, and that is absolutely correct. Every room is done to a T; every detail is considered. Even the tickets are beautiful. My favorites were these taxidermy displays:
The wolf had a bird in its mouth:
I should have taken more pictures of the guests, if only for Brian, who approves heartily of boobs. I told Alan when we were leaving that every year we attend, I’m astonished anew at how many women seem to own corsets. There were some amazing boobage displays via corset, I must say, some left to simply take the air on their whalebone shelf.
Next year, maybe.
I’m really, really hoping next week is less crazed than last, although I did get a lot done. But I’m ready to move at a more reasonable pace for a while. Bloggage?
Nope. I’ve been so immersed in Trump for so long all I want to read about is makeup, cheap overseas travel, food, music and culture. Have a good week, all.
Judybusy said on October 16, 2016 at 4:41 pm
That event looks really fun, and I’m with you about just immersing yourself in an experience and not worrying about documenting it.
I spent most of the weekend at a public defender development weekend. Lots of great info about the interstices of mental health and the criminal justice system. When I got home, I took the dog for a long walk in 70 degree,sunny weather. Just beautiful here with all the trees’ color and sunshine. I also got to see a beautiful moonrise over a lake last evening, as the PD office takes place in a resort in Brainerd, MN.
I was pondering about whether or not to watch debate #3, and happily remembered today that we have friends coming over for dinner, and they are as sick of it all as we are.
brian stouder said on October 16, 2016 at 4:54 pm
I’ve been so immersed in Trump for so long all I want to read about is makeup, cheap overseas travel, food, music and culture.
Well, and boobage!
(and indeed, the Donald is a class-A1 boob, so staying abreast of the next debate is sure to fit the bill)
adrianne said on October 16, 2016 at 7:38 pm
Alan seems to be enjoying himself! I love the taxidermy displays. And, of course,Kate’s band.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 16, 2016 at 9:50 pm
Alan’s horns look very congenial . . . we have a guy here in town who somehow had them installed as implants. We don’t have the kind of relationship where I can ask him if they have to be handled carefully when he dries his hair after a shower. Although he may not shower. His tattoos would not indicate he has much to say to me other than “Die,” but I’d be idly curious as to his source(s) of income sufficient to keep paying for the ongoing body modifications.
And why he and his horns have such a thing for Vector Medieval Gothic font. I can make out the vertical and horizontal main phrases, but he has additional verbiage in more of an eighteen-point that I’d have to be in an awkward position to read clearly. The header material is more “Satan Wants You” but it could be that his nickname is Satan, and it’s just a come on for the ladies.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 16, 2016 at 9:56 pm
Pre-worship at our second, larger gathering, our leading pro-Trump advocate came up to me and launched into a D’Souza fueled rant, his wife gently but firmly tugging at his elbow. We found common ground in the mutual, if not co-ordinate belief that the GOP is dead as a functioning party, and that a third party would be a good outcome. His fury at Hillary’s perfidy is more white-hot than ever, but I could tell that his passion for The Donald has cooled to a rueful resolve.
My take in our church community, such as it is or is not a cross section of Ohio, is that we’re down to more of an 80-20 right now in Hillary-Trump supporter ration. But it’s the relatively unaffiliated, un-connected, detached Trump voters who are the wild card. We’ve heard for cycle after cycle that they might just rise up and flood the polls *this* time . . . but will they? Are their numbers such as we’re told, and will they actually vote? No idea, but in most evangelical circles, there’s still a solid 20-30% insistent that a change agent and blocking move versus Queen Hillary is necessary, even if it’s Trump . . . and a very feeble “yeah, I’m for her” out of the generally larger Clinton contingent. I just don’t feel like I know much for sure right now on this election.
brian stouder said on October 16, 2016 at 10:13 pm
I just don’t feel like I know much for sure right now on this election.
Jeff – that has the ring of truth.
no one that I know thinks they like Trump one day, and then Clinton at a later date (or vice-versa) – yet the poll numbers shift and change beyond their margins of error, or the course of several weeks.
Even allowing for the old truth that the real question isn’t who you’re going to vote for, but instead whether or not you actually ARE going to vote…still, how would poll numbers move and change?
My theory is – if I say to myself “Hell Yeah! I’m a Trump guy!”, and then a pollster calls me, I’ll tell her that,too.
And then, if he implodes (as he seems to be doing) – maybe I decide not to vote at all….but I wouldn’t tell a pollster that…the snapshot of who’s ahead shouldn;t really change at all – except to the extent that the “undecided”s move from that status to favoring one or the other candidates.
Aside from that stuff – I’m heartily tired of the Donald bragging about how “smart” he is (regarding his non-payment of taxes) – and yet how “rigged” everything is that works against him.
If he was 66 years younger, his line of reasoning (and his temperament) would be normal
Sherri said on October 16, 2016 at 11:19 pm
I’d never bet money on unlikely voters actually showing up at the polls without a really strong organization hounding them there. I know it seems weird to all of us here, who wouldn’t dream of not voting, but it is remarkably hard to get people to show up and vote.
Your evangelical community may only be 20-30% in favor of Trump, but the larger white evangelical community is more Trumpian than that. The good news, from my perspective, is that Trump is clearly bringing about some re-thinking of alliances and positions among evangelicals, as particularly younger evangelicals seemed less consumed with fighting the old culture war issues and hating Hillary. A pro-life movement that is less concerned with controlling people’s sex lives and more concerned about doing something about the conditions that tend to lead to abortions is a movement that I can find common ground with, for example.
Dexter said on October 17, 2016 at 2:07 am
Every Halloween season I reflect on October 31, 1987, the night my brother and I saw a Tom Waits show at the Chicago Theater. About 3/4 of the attendees were in costume, and a man sitting right below us wore a period-piece tuxedo, like they wore in “Boardwalk Empire”, hoove-hands, and the most beautifully detailed papier mache horse-head I had ever seen. He never removed it. Coolest damn thing I had ever been around. http://www.tomwaitsfan.com/tom%20waits%20library/www.tomwaitslibrary.com/images/portraits19861990/withwsb2-BlackRider.jpg Tom and Old Bull Lee, a.k.a. William Burroughs.
Crazycatlady said on October 17, 2016 at 3:35 am
I own a corset. I love it. I wore it for an immersive event show here in Detroit. It was so much fun to dress in a Victorian costume.
basset said on October 17, 2016 at 7:21 am
Pics or it didn’t happen!
Meanwhile, if anyone woke up today and thought “hmmm, this’d be just the day to see some really well done video of an abandoned prison,” well, here’s your chance:
and, Joe, I am aware of the Mummies but have never seen them, they don’t often play around here.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 17, 2016 at 7:25 am
Sherri, you could be right, although it’s not sounding that way around here. But it’s like the debates about what your tell pollsters versus what you do (a perennial, but feeling a little more relevant this time around); I’ve heard both pro- and anti-Trump people make their case, cheerfully in the former, anxiously in the latter, that people are underreporting their intention to vote for Trump, but once they’re in the booth, the vote for a monkey with a machine gun “just to shake things up” gets more likely.
I can think it through the other way ’round, too, but I’m someone who’s already come to that conclusion, so it may just be wishful thinking. I do know that I’m aware of plenty of people, Republican and Reagan Democrat from this area, who were Romney supporters last time who are saying “I gotta vote for Hillary. It’s important.” Yep.
Julie Robinson said on October 17, 2016 at 7:56 am
Jefftmmo, a previous pastor never mingled pre-service, but stayed in the sacristy praying and centering himself. You may want to adopt this practice until the election is over.
Connie said on October 17, 2016 at 9:06 am
Free Press story with pics about Theater Bizarre. http://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/2016/10/16/theatre-bizarre-best-of-2016/92209324/
Sue said on October 17, 2016 at 10:50 am
How did they get all those candles past the fire marshall?
And off-topic, despite what TLo say, I think Helena has gone too far this time. Tres derelicte.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 11:45 am
Jeff(tmmo), people would have to be lying to pollsters on a scale never seen before to get white evangelical support down to your 20-30%. Polls indicate that white evangelical support has been pretty stable at around 65%, and has stayed that way even after the Billy Bush video. Note that is white evangelical support, not overall evangelical support, which is around 45%, because African-American evangelical support for Clinton pulls that way down.
If you wandered around the South talking to evangelicals, you’d probably not encounter many evangelicals willing to say out loud they’re voting for Hillary.
brian stouder said on October 17, 2016 at 11:48 am
Especially to some Yankee busy-body!
Scout said on October 17, 2016 at 12:50 pm
Every time the Trumpster opens his mouth he reminds me of nothing other than a giant toddler shouting because he isn’t getting his own way. Whenever we are forced to listen to his voice, my SO and I just holler “Listen Linda” at the top of our lungs until he stops.
I don’t even know what the point of Debate #3 could possibly be. Anyone who is truly undecided by this point probably needs help reciting the alphabet or counting to 10. Or is just looking for attention. I don’t think we need yet another pointless exercize of HRC proving she is the only adult of the two.
And anyone who insists they’re Evangelical but still voting for DT has given up any claim to moral high ground.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 1:00 pm
Here’s something Obama is going to be doing after leaving office: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/obama-holder-redistricting-gerrymandering-229868
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 1:49 pm
Why the Dems need to take the Senate: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/mccain-clinton-trump-supreme-court/index.html
“I promise you that we will be united against any Supreme Court nominee that Hillary Clinton, if she were president, would put up,” McCain said. “I promise you. This is where we need the majority and Pat Toomey is probably as articulate and effective on the floor of the Senate as anyone I have encountered.”
Jakash said on October 17, 2016 at 1:57 pm
I gotta believe that if there’s an actual “silent majority” out there, it’ll end up being for Hillary. For one thing, Rump’s whole theme is “Winning!” in the time-honored fashion demonstrated by Charlie Sheen. He cares about the polls a LOT and has the whole time. I’d think the big majority of his followers want to help prop up his polls, not under-report in a clever attempt to spring a November surprise. A November 9 putsch, maybe…
Though there is plenty of enthusiastic support for Hillary, she also has a fair amount of grudging, “gotta stop Rump” votes. Seems to me that there are a lot of people who say they definitely aren’t voting for Rump, but don’t know what they’ll do beyond that. I imagine that a number of them will end up going her way. The anti-Hillary folks, meanwhile, seem a lot more comfortable acknowledging that Rump is their guy, Lord help them.
I read some statistic about there being 15 or 20% of wives who are intending to vote for Hillary whose husbands believe their wives are voting for Rump. (Don’t know if that’s true or a Dem fantasy, and won’t bother looking it up at the moment.)
I’ll be very surprised if he gets nearly as many votes as Romney. (I’ve been plenty surprised already, of course.) The question is, how close to Obama’s numbers can Hillary come? I doubt that she can match them, but think she should have more than enough.
This comment, I must acknowledge, is pure blog-commenter spit-balling, based on no solid on-the-ground reporting such as is offered by the estimable Jeff (tmmo). With an added healthy serving of wishful thinking, to boot! ; )
Jolene said on October 17, 2016 at 2:29 pm
Trying to outguess the vast amount of high-quality polling on the presidential race is a waste of time. Unless we find out that Hillary Clinton once roasted a child and ate it for dinner, she will win. Here is a very interesting graph showing that, except for a few days after the Republican convention and before the end of the Democratic convention, Trump has never been ahead.
This graph is from Real Clear Politics, but other polling aggregators (Pollster at HuffPost, The Upshot on the NYT website, and FiveThirtyEight.com) show the same results. The Upshot, for instance, now gives Clinton a 90% chance of winning.
If you haven’t been following these indices, I encourage you to give them a look. They’re good for allaying anxiety and also have cool graphics.
In other news, the Clinton campaign has announced that Michelle Obama will appear in Phoenix later this week. She’s going for a landslide, and I hope she gets it.
Dorothy said on October 17, 2016 at 2:34 pm
Sue – if HBC’s intent was to look like a homeless crazy person, she succeeded brilliantly.
I just tweeted Hillary to remind her to bring some tissues or handkerchiefs for the Dumpster’s podium on Wednesday. If I knew where to mail them, I’d do it myself!
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 3:00 pm
Vote early, Obama says: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Be0nydyj8MI
Suzanne said on October 17, 2016 at 3:02 pm
“And anyone who insists they’re Evangelical but still voting for DT has given up any claim to moral high ground.”
Funny. Just today I saw several Tweets and Facebook posts about Evangelicals who don’t support Trump trying to figure out where to go or what to call themselves so they don’t get lumped in with Trumpistas.
I know a family who would consider themselves evangelical and I’m pretty sure they are Trumpistas. I blocked the husband from my Facebook feed because of all his vile, racist anti-Obama & anti-immigrant posts. There is a god, though. Their daughter is set to marry a black guy from South America with a born-out-of-wedlock kid from a previous relationship in a few weeks. Love does (T)rump all, doesn’t it?
brian stouder said on October 17, 2016 at 3:04 pm
Suzanne – yes it does; it does indeed
Julie Robinson said on October 17, 2016 at 3:09 pm
In other words, their daughter is pretty typical these days.
Dorothy, looking for the “love” button and LMAO at the same time.
jcburns said on October 17, 2016 at 4:00 pm
I get into trouble when I try to skim-read the comments here. I was under the impression at one point that Alan had a tattoo that said “die” and permanently implanted horns, and I thought, “well, that must be new since when we saw him a couple of months ago.”
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 17, 2016 at 4:04 pm
Julie . . . I tried that years ago, and they came looking for me. But it’s a lovely thought. I’m still trying to get the custodian and the stewardship chair from coming up to me for any reason short of police at the door between 10:25 and 10:30! “Uh, Jeff, I know you’re about to get started, but I might not catch you after the service, and . . . “
Jolene said on October 17, 2016 at 4:13 pm
Here’s a good article on “motivated reasoning” (i.e., the tendency to dismiss results that show your candidate losing) in poll interpretation.
Jolene said on October 17, 2016 at 4:31 pm
A story about a constituency I hadn’t thought much about: College Republicans.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 5:39 pm
The National Weather Service is a mess: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/magazine/why-isnt-the-us-better-at-predicting-extreme-weather.html
David C. said on October 17, 2016 at 6:13 pm
During the last debate, I want Hillary to look Trump straight in the eye and tell him to quit whining. I’m so fucking sick of that whiny-assed titty baby. I don’t even listen to a lot of political podcasts that I normally like because I just cant stand hearing him any more. Calling him a whiner to his face is exactly what he deserves.
Today was the first day of early voting in WI. One of the clerks said there had been a line all day. We waited a half hour to vote.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 6:24 pm
So, here’s a question: what’s the goal of the Trump campaign now? Since the first debate, they’ve dropped any pretense of outreach to voters outside their base, and their base isn’t large enough to win. They don’t care about downticket races at all. So, after the loss, what then?
The popular theory seems to be Trump TV, but where’s the money coming from for that? Cable isn’t a growth industry, banks don’t want to lend to Trump, and he doesn’t spend his own money even if he has it. I think Trump is irrelevant to the future of Trumpism; it’s not about Trump, it’s about Steve Bannon.
Bannon is the guy with a vision, odious as it is, and Trump was merely useful for Bannon. Bannon wants to destroy the Republican Party and remake it in his image, and for Bannon, having the Republicans go down in flames all the way down the ticket would be great. It’s much easier to rebuild a party after it’s torn down. Can they succeed without TV? I don’t know. I don’t think Fox will collaborate with such a vision. But it’s really hard to get traction with a new TV channel, even when you’ve got endless amounts of money to throw at it and a built-in audience (just ask Oprah.)
David C. said on October 17, 2016 at 6:37 pm
Without Ailes, will Fox even be Fox? They say it’s now like Yugoslavia after Tito. Nobody knows what to do. It’s also rumored that Murdoch’s sons want to remake it into a slightly right of center real news organization. They’d be doing the country a huge favor if they do. They get big ratings, but how much does gold stocks, freeze-dried food, and hemorrhoid cream pay to advertise. Not much, I’d wager.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 7:36 pm
The Clinton campaign just announced more money being spent in MO/IN/AZ. This is money from the coordinated campaign for GOTV, in support of downballot races, particularly Senate races. I bring this us to note that the complaint from the Sanders supporters on the net trying to figure out how campaigns worked from first principles didn’t understand that the point of the Hillary Victory Fund was for the general, and complaining that it wasn’t being shared with the state parties during the primaries was missing the point.
It would be nice if the reporters writing about the Podesta emails spent a little time educating themselves about how campaigns work, too, before breathlessly accepting the frame that Wikileaks placed them in.
alex said on October 17, 2016 at 8:17 pm
I’m amazed that Hillary’s reported as polling so poorly in Indiana while the Dem candidates for governor and senator are doing so well. I wonder if there isn’t an underreporting/ashamed to be with her thing going on here.
I generally don’t pick up the phone when I don’t recognized the caller, but I went ahead and did it the other day just to fuck with ’em. They asked if I was voting for Gregg or Holcomb for governor. I said Gregg. They said they were with the Holcomb campaign and had no more questions. Holcomb (or Hokum, as I call him) is Mike Pence’s hand-picked successor and he’s sucking an egg.
I’m not getting much of a read on what non-insane Republicans are doing, but did overhear some interesting elevator conversations lately between some lawyers, including one local judge, and they’re pretty dismayed with what’s happening to the GOP.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 8:41 pm
Bannon isn’t the only person using Trump for their own ends. Keith Olbermann shares his experience back in the day being recruited for the VRWC: http://video.gq.com/watch/the-closer-with-keith-olbermann-maybe-trump-is-really-a-victim-in-all-this
Deborah said on October 17, 2016 at 10:38 pm
I watched the CNN Melania interview with Anderson Cooper and as someone who has been cheated on in my life, I felt sorry for her, even though she asked us not to feel sorry for her. Being cheated on is extremely humiliating, believe me. I’m sure his campaign will have some success with his campaign, but I hope it’s small.
Sherri said on October 17, 2016 at 11:33 pm
I’ve seen several articles like this one That focus on a community somewhere in the middle of the country that is dealing uneasily with immigration and discusses how this is the future, because of demographic change. These are communities in swing or red states.
But we’ve already got an large example of what a majority minority state looks like, much less community. California has been majority minority for years now, but because it is a solidly Democratic state, nobody’s writing about California. But if we want to think about the future, and especially if Republicans want to think about the future, California is a good place to look. It wasn’t that long ago that California was a swing state, that California had Republican governors and Senators. Then in the face of obvious demographic trends, rather than court Latinos, the Republicans decided to make an end to bilingual education a signature issue. They’ve never recovered.
Anyway, sometimes the stories aren’t in the swing states.
Suzanne said on October 18, 2016 at 6:33 am
Interesting article, Sherri.
I have often wondered at the GOP not doing more to court Latinos. Granted, I am lumping them together here, but they lean toward strong family ties, are hard working, and Christian; all things the conservatives say people should be. But the conservatives can’t seem to let go of that anti-immigration, English only thing, no matter what. And I think there are still quite a few evangelicals who do not consider Catholics to be real Chtistians.
alex said on October 18, 2016 at 7:33 am
Movement conservatives don’t really give a rip about “family values.” Sanctimony is the sugar they use to sweeten up their ulterior agenda of authoritarianism and white supremacy before they ram it down your throat. The Obamas are a model family — the genuine article. If conservatives were true to their purported values you’d think they’d be pleased, but it irks them to no end.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 18, 2016 at 7:38 am
Dan Fisher came down back in 1990 to here in Licking County, Ohio to help us study and analyze the most complete mastodon find ever, which had been placed in a pond in late autumn, something we knew from both gut contents and the tusk rings. We got the whole thing except for a pair of ribs and one leg, which makes sense if the Paleoindian band roasted a section and pulled the liver out after the kill, and submerged the rest for emergency use later in the winter. The mystery we’ll never know about 11,600 years ago +/- 800 . . . did they not come back for the rest because they continued along the receding front of the glaciers and did well in subsequent hunts, or because the group didn’t survive that winter? But the cut marks on the ribs and other edge bones were the signature of those people you could hold in your hands, and that’s what you do archaeology for (or at least it is for some of us).
brian stouder said on October 18, 2016 at 8:22 am
Fascinating stuff, Jeff; thanks for the link
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 18, 2016 at 8:28 am
Interesting take on the stories out of Appalachia . . . to which I’ve contributed here. My own defense is that it’s my neck of the woods, but I appreciated the reminder that this has become a genre of sorts, which shapes our writing. What I’d also say in semi-defense of the NY/DC writers is that this particular portion of the Appalachian culture is an easy drive away from their home turf: you go to eat at the Inn at Little Washington, set off into the wilds, see the natives, speak to their keepers, then head back home with the images fresh in your mind.
But she’s right, it’s a much more complicated reality than is generally noted other than as an aside. Even so, between the Ohio Valley & West Virginia’s northern panhandle, southeast Ohio & the Charleston WV region just over the river, the eastern Kentucky hills around Ashland and points south, and southern Indiana, I can attest that there’s a heavy hand of sameness and suffering. My biggest adjustment in living six years south of Morgantown is that as a pastor I was in an upper social stratum — because there’s essentially no middle class. From someone else, you might have said there’s no upper class, but the teachers and professors and clergy and bank employees and local managers were expected to play roles that normally fall to (in my Midwestern experience) a different order of being. Wealth had long since departed, and the pyramid was flat: lots of workers with their friends and family who were either on disability or retired early, and the professionals whom I’d thought were middle class elsewhere. In Fairmont, I was in Rotary for five years, and enjoyed it; back here in Ohio, I couldn’t afford it if I were invited, and I wasn’t. (I could have bulled my way in on the basis of having been inducted, but again, too pricey for me here.)
Anyhow, I’m torn reading the essay because I think she’s got some points — but it is truly different there, and now the differences become toxic with the general hollowing out of the extractive economies. Contra Williamson, stopping federal benefits wouldn’t empty out those hollows, it would just intensify the suffering. Those who could leave have left (see J.D. Vance, who half gets this, because he did), and those who stay doubt, with reason, that there’s a softer landing in some new region of the country.
brian stouder said on October 18, 2016 at 11:45 am
If the past is prologue –
shows the twitter storm we may be in for on election night, from our chief twit.
hopefully some patriotic Trumpista will take the Donald’s phone away, and make it go all Samsung!
Sherri said on October 18, 2016 at 1:21 pm
I’m just tired of the Appalachian Trump stories. They focus only on the same part of Appalachia, and as the author or your article says, ignore race.
Interesting that you use Rotary as a marker for class, Jeff. Of course, no matter how active,and involved in the community I am, I would be unlikely to be invited to Rotary, because I don’t have a job. Oh, when my daughter was still at home, I would be told how important that job was, but it’s not a job treated with respect.
And I’m old enough to remember when service clubs were forced to allow women. Many of them still seem to be mostly male.
Sherri said on October 18, 2016 at 1:42 pm
The Appalachian pieces are also just a variant on the What’s the Matter With Kansas pieces. Is anybody really surprised that Trump is doing well in that area, even though nothing Trump does is likely to help? In the meantime, what is really different about this election is that men with college degrees are supporting Clinton at a high rate; Dems haven’t had support from this group in forever. That’s not a story because reporters are men with college degrees, so it seems obvious to them.
Jakash said on October 18, 2016 at 2:15 pm
Interesting… I think! ; )
“The amazingly stable 2016 presidential race
For all of its ups and downs, the primary results, the numerous debates and the bombshell stories, our latest national NBC/WSJ poll shows just how stable the Hillary Clinton-vs.-Donald Trump race has been over the past year. Just compare our poll’s numbers three weeks before Election Day with the NBC/WSJ numbers from Jan. 2016, right before the Iowa and New Hampshire contests:
Trump’s fav/unfav rating in Jan. 2016: 29% positive, 58% negative
Trump’s fav/unfav now: 29% positive, 62% negative
Clinton’s fav/unfav in Jan. 2016: 40% positive, 49% negative
Clinton’s fav/unfav now: 40% positive, 50% negative
The two-way ballot in Jan. 2016: Clinton 51%, Trump 41%
The two-way ballot now: Clinton 51%, Trump 41%
The more things have changed, the more they’ve stayed the same, right? One theory why the race has been so stable: By Jan. 2016, most Americans (and voters) had plenty of knowledge and information about both Clinton and Trump. Neither was an unknown figure, after all.”
brian stouder said on October 18, 2016 at 2:51 pm
Jackash – absolutely!
I think one truism is – we see Hillary’s warts, and we choose her anyway. Electing her is like a person’s re-marriage – the “illusion factor” is vastly reduced (or gone)…
and like the Republicans used to say about Reagan – if it wasn’t for that pesky 22nd Amendment, we’d be on cruise-control, heading for President Obama’s re-election.
As it is, BHO is young enough to think about running for the Senate, if he wants to (down the road)
Suzanne said on October 18, 2016 at 3:10 pm
Interesting article, Jeff. Many of the problems of places like Appalachia have indeed been exacerbated by the hollowing out. The intelligent, motivated, upwardly mobile people leave to find opportunities elsewhere because the those that used to provide at least a taste of a better life have gone. So, what’s left?
Sherri said on October 18, 2016 at 3:22 pm
I’d say there’s little doubt that the hacking of the DNC computers and Podesta’s emails was politically based, whether or not it was Russia: http://motherboard.vice.com/read/trump-is-running-some-really-insecure-email-servers
Sherri said on October 18, 2016 at 3:44 pm
The latest episode of the podcast 99% Invisible is about McMansions, a favorite topic around here.
jcburns said on October 18, 2016 at 3:50 pm
I would prefer Supreme Court Justices Barack and Michelle Obama.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 18, 2016 at 4:02 pm
The old phrase has more than a bit of truth to it, at least in the Midwest: Rotary owns the town, Kiwanis runs the town, but Shriners enjoy the town!
The religious reverse of it is that Methodists are Baptists who got a salaried position, Presbyterians are Methodists who moved into management, and Episcopalians are Presbyterians who married the owner’s daughter.
Where this leaves folk of my Disciples of Christ and UCC persuasion I’ll leave you to work out on your own. Some more harshly add that Baptists are Pentecostals who learned to read — and there you have small town sociology at its most sharp-edged.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 18, 2016 at 4:07 pm
I’m not ruling out JC’s suggestion, but Brian, what if Barack decides to go all Quincy Adams in his post-presidential life? Senate again I think unlikely, but it would be another break with precedent — Taft went to the Supreme Court, JQA to the House, and I think that’s about it for any career after two terms.
As Colbert said in his career counseling session to him: “Your resume shows no promotions in the last eight years? That seems worrisome.” To which Mr. Obama said “in my last position there really wasn’t much room for advancement.” “So why are you interested in leaving your old job now?” “The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.”
brian stouder said on October 18, 2016 at 4:20 pm
Well, if you get your choice of government jobs – I’d pick the Senate over the Supreme Court….unless you get to be Chief Justice….
Jolene said on October 18, 2016 at 4:30 pm
Obama didn’t like the Senate when he was in it. Why would he want to go back? I think he’s too much of an activist to want to be on the Supreme Court. Besides, he has other plans. Also, I expect to see him heavily involved in My Brother’s Keeper.
Mark P. said on October 18, 2016 at 4:51 pm
Sherri — Interesting story about the NWS. It’s no surprise to me. I worked for Army contractors for nearly 30 years. I was going to say more, but what the hell. I can’t see how it’s going to change, especially for something like weather and climate modeling, not when so many Republican lawmakers are science deniers in the first place.
Sherri said on October 18, 2016 at 4:54 pm
Obama is a bad fit for the Senate. You have to be patient and suck up to the old guard and learn how,to work the arcane Senate rules which are designed to prevent change. The Senate was a resume filler for Obama.
Elizabeth Warren is showing a talent for being a Senator. Hold high profile hearings to embarrass the people you want to change. Work to elect like-minded Senators. Raise money.
brian stouder said on October 18, 2016 at 5:04 pm
Sherri – indeed. Gotta love Elizabeth Warren…and figuring on HRC for 8 years, the presidency isn’t going to happen for her – so (I STILL say!) a contingent lead by Senator Obama & Senator Warren would be a potent force.
But indeed, I see what y’all are sayin’ about Barack maybe being ill-suited to the Senate climate.
But given the options….and given the things senators get to do (confirming people, chief amongst the list!) – I still betcha he could be talked into it.
He just needs to legally change his state of residence to some reddish state, so that his seat diminishes the R’s numbers
LAMary said on October 18, 2016 at 5:27 pm
I think Kamala Harris will be a good senator from CA. She’s running to replace Barbara Boxer. Since we’re a non-partisan state, we have two Democrats running against each other. It’s a win either way, but I think Kamala’s got more edge to her.
Deborah said on October 18, 2016 at 5:39 pm
I will be traveling back to Chicago tomorrow and will get home after the debate is over, I suspect. So I’ll need to get up to speed online afterwards. I hate the trip back it’s a long, long day, of train, bus, plane and taxi.
It’s been hectic here in Santa Fe these last few days. Little Bird and I spent Sunday night at the Abiquiu cabin and then had to make another trip from Santa Fe to Abiquiu and back to SF later in the day. We are about 99% finished moving stuff out there, but there’s always something that we hadn’t thought about.
The mentally ill neighbor is gone, but everyone is on pins and needles that he’ll show up and retaliate. We got the apartment alarmed and are looking into surveillance. The sister who owns the condo he was living in has a restraining order but she keeps calling us and other neighbors to ask if he has shown up. Scary.
Deborah said on October 18, 2016 at 5:42 pm
No Brian, we want Obama back in Chicago. He could do so much to get the south side going strong.
alex said on October 18, 2016 at 6:01 pm
A little off topic but some good news today! My lab values are back to normal. A1C 5.5, bad cholesterol 79, triglycerides acceptably low. And I dropped ten pounds. So tonight I’m going out to celebrate with a big fat steak, a nice helping of fries with that, and schnocktails!
susan said on October 18, 2016 at 6:05 pm
This is very cool. In Dearborn. Heh.
Laurie said on October 18, 2016 at 6:46 pm
Enjoy your (as Kinky Friedman calls them) big, hairy steak.
David C. said on October 18, 2016 at 7:03 pm
The last place I want Obama is on the Supreme Court. It’s not that he wouldn’t be a great Justice, I want him to be crisscrossing the country making his signature barn burner speeches.
Today, Obama told Trump to quit whining and fight for votes. That’s going to leave a mark. He’s going to be so angry tomorrow, I actually fear what he may physically attack Hillary. He seems that unhinged. I wonder how closely the Secret Service agents will be placed.
Deborah said on October 18, 2016 at 7:09 pm
Good news Alex, but don’t go overboard on the celebrations!
Deborah said on October 18, 2016 at 7:16 pm
I’m going to speculate that Trump will storm off of the debate stage. But I’ll miss it until after it’s over. Darn.
Sherri said on October 18, 2016 at 8:31 pm
Maybe you have to be a baseball fan and have listened to this blowhard for years to understand how badly I want this, but run, Curt, run: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/please-run-for-the-senate-curt-schilling.html
Meanwhile, one of the ways Elizabeth Warren is a good Senator is she understands accumulating power and using it: https://newrepublic.com/article/137798/important-wikileaks-revelation-isnt-hillary-clinton
alex said on October 18, 2016 at 8:47 pm
Just came home from a rich dinner and I’m actually craving spinach drenched in balsamic vinegar. It’s gonna take some serious shit to break my resolve.
Jill said on October 18, 2016 at 9:23 pm
I joined Rotary young (under 30) and have always belonged to a club with lots of women. We’ve probably had more women presidents than men. It’s just never been an issue for us, probably partly because women have been part of the club since the beginning. You’d be welcome with us, Sherri. And Jeff, we certainly don’t own the town but we work hard to improve it.
Jolene said on October 18, 2016 at 11:40 pm
Trump is reported to be bringing some special guests to tomorrow night’s debate. One is Malik Obama, the president’s older half-brother, and the other is Patricia Smith, whose son was killed at Benghazi. As you likely recall, she spoke at the RNC convention in Cleveland last summer. I don’t exactly remember whether she called HRC a murderer, but that was pretty much the gist of it.
Sherri said on October 19, 2016 at 1:25 am
What should Dems do economically, and would it attract Trump voters? https://medium.com/@rortybomb/would-progressive-economics-win-over-trumps-white-working-class-voters-43f78cc7f005#.5dr2n9euo
Sherri said on October 19, 2016 at 1:37 am
Larry Lessing, unlike many of his friends in the pardon Snowden world, gets that the Podesta emails were not the same thing: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/larry-lessig-has-a-very-good-attitude.html
Sherri said on October 19, 2016 at 1:47 am
The death march of a losing campaign: https://theringer.com/donald-trump-is-on-a-presidential-death-march-weve-never-seen-before-2a23da0e8af4#.30tw2dn63
alex said on October 19, 2016 at 7:09 am
I thought this was an insightful interview:
I happened upon it after reflecting this morning just what does “conservative” mean anymore? I was remembering my college years and being implored by wealthy older folks to develop an appreciation of opera and Shakespeare for my generation would become the guardian of these things, of the western canon, and that this was a sacred duty not to be taken lightly. This was conservatism, I was told. What’s more, it was expected that I would put aside my homosexual proclivities and marry a woman one day. All in all, the future looked bleak and hopeless. I was decidedly not conservative.
Then conservatism somehow morphed into a celebration of low culture and boastful ignorance and that didn’t appeal to me either.
The Republican party is one weird coalition but I can see how they always manage to have things both ways when it suits them.
Kirk said on October 19, 2016 at 8:42 am
Curt Schilling: one of the country’s biggest assholes. Would love to seem him run and get about 15 percent of the vote. A “conservative” who accepted a bunch of government money and still managed to run his dumbass company into the ground. And I still suspect his bloody sock was ketchup.
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 19, 2016 at 11:10 am
Sherri — don’t be too sure. After all, Jolene has as much as admitted that Hillary has roasted and eaten a child.
(It’s amazing how easy it is to echo the whole surrogate mindset and rhetoric after you hear enough of it.)
Jeff (the mild-mannered one) said on October 19, 2016 at 11:13 am
The county Dem office finally let me have my two Hillary signs. Had to go back until a grown-up (sorry, college kids!) was in the office. “We can’t give you signage if you’re not a Democrat!” Of course, I could have lied. The nice older lady who was working the desk today sighed when I told her my story(s) and said “we still have some work to do on the whole concept of coalition building!”
brian stouder said on October 19, 2016 at 11:39 am
Well, I’ll have my popcorn all set, this evening (although probably alongside lemonade, instead of icy-cold Diet Pepsi)
I think HRC is leaving bonus points on the table, if she doesn’t approach Donald right out of the box, and reach to shake his hand.
Also – the first time Donald uses the word “rigged” – she should interject with “There he goes again!” and echo Our Lord & Savior, Ronnie Reagan.
How a (supposed) ‘billionaire’ can go two decades without paying income tax, and still have the gaul to moan and groan about a “rigged system” that unfairly benefits a chosen few – is beyond me.
Other than that, HRC should ignore him (as she pretty much has, in previous debates) and communicate her message.
btw – watched 45 minutes of the Evan Bayh/Todd Young/crazy lady debate last night before stepping up to The Voice. The drinking game for that debate would have been – every time Young says the word “Marine”
Jakash said on October 19, 2016 at 12:51 pm
My hope would be that Hillary doesn’t even mention any of the sexist nonsense about Rump that everybody is very familiar with, at this point. I hope she’s prepared better answers than she offered last time for his attacks on her political career. Something like “Yeah, Don, I’ve had some successes and failures in spending my whole life dedicated to public service and trying to make things better for regular people. I’m only one person, and I don’t have a magic wand, after all. But, Mr. “Only I can fix it,” shall we talk about Trump Steaks, Trump Airlines, Trump “University”, the bankrupt Taj Majal, etc., etc., the many failures you’ve had during your life, which has been dedicated only to making money for yourself?
“You question my position on trade. It’s a tough issue, indeed. But maybe you’d like to explain why it’s not “crooked” for you to spend the whole campaign bashing trade with China when you’ve chosen to have your branded clothes manufactured there and have bought plenty of Chinese steel for your buildings. As for the Wikileaks nonsense and the emails and my Wall St. speeches, it’s abundantly evident by now that I say much less controversial stuff in private than you do on any given day in one of your speeches. You sanctimonious, uninformed, orange nitwit!”
Suzanne said on October 19, 2016 at 1:05 pm
That would be awesome, Jackash!!
I’m not sure if I can stomach another debate, so I may not watch. I did not watch or listen to the Bayh/Young debate. I find it amazing how much Young’s camp is making of Bayh’s time as a lobbyist when that is exactly what Dan Coates did. No, I don’t like the idea of going from government official to lobbyist to government official much, but to point out how awful it is when you are running to replace a guy who did the same dang thing is just so, well, silly!
This election is giving me reason to drink.
Jakash said on October 19, 2016 at 1:17 pm
I wonder if I’m just letting my anxiety about this election get the better of me, even with the odds looking as good as they do at this point, or if crap like this could actually be a problem? Talk about trying to rig the election, BTW…
Judybusy said on October 19, 2016 at 2:30 pm
And now, for today’s palate cleanser. Postmodern Jukebox covering Journey’s Dream On. Showed up on my FB feed; I’d never heard of them.
I think I shared Seu Jorge’s cover of Rock with You a few weeks ago. Perfect, downbeat funky take that mellows me out every time I hear it.
I voted yesterday; MN has early voting for the first time this year. Fast and easy. It felt so satisfying filling out the Clinton/Kaine bubble!
brian stouder said on October 19, 2016 at 2:38 pm
JudyBusy – excellent!
I will be very happy if Evan Bayh takes the senate seat back for the D’s (the one Dan Coats is vacating); and if the D’s re-take the governorship, that would be pleasant….and I’ll be extra extra extra happy if Indiana rejects Trump and our BK-LA (Bobby Knight look-alike) governor, in favor of Clinton/Kaine….
and I’d trade all that Indiana stuff for a national Clinton win
Scout said on October 19, 2016 at 3:03 pm
I don’t know you can even call these spectacles debates anyway. One person is trying to speak policy and the other is interrupting and turning the whole thing into a Jerry Springer sideshow. Anyone tuning in because they aren’t up to speed on either candidate’s policy positions isn’t going to come away better informed. The only reason anyone I know is watching these debates is to see a trainwreck in real time and post on Twitter about it.
What I’m looking forward to is going to a rally tomorrow where Michelle Obama is speaking. The FLOTUS has been giving some amazing speeches and I want me some!
Judybusy said on October 19, 2016 at 3:07 pm
Scout, I’m so envious! Have a blast soaking up all that amazing energy that is our First Lady!
Sherri said on October 19, 2016 at 3:55 pm
Jeff(tmmo), if I’d been in that campaign office, you would have gotten a sign the first time you asked, and another for a friend!
Because I’m all about the coalitions! http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13288594/new-silent-majority
alex said on October 19, 2016 at 3:59 pm
I voted early today. And as a big fuck you to the right-wing dingaling running for the House seat in my district, I voted for the beer-swilling cross-dressing homeless guy who miraculously stole the Dem primary, even though he says he’s pro-Trump, and has a few other screwy positions. Feeling satisfied.
Sherri said on October 19, 2016 at 4:07 pm
Maybe Hillary should invite Carly Simon to the debate: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jKaiedK9SFc&feature=youtu.be
Scout said on October 19, 2016 at 4:43 pm
I think Amy Schumer should be invited.
While on the subject of debate invitees, Josh Marshall had a great editorial today about that.
jcburns said on October 19, 2016 at 4:52 pm
For the 2020 elections, we gotta ELIMINATE the audience. Completely. No audience. No games. And while I’m enforcing non-existent rules, cable news networks will be forbidden from herding a small crowd of sign-waving partisan lunatics into the camera shot behind the anchors covering the debate just to make sparkly TV.
basset said on October 19, 2016 at 5:24 pm
Pretty good turnout today at the early-voting location across the parking lot from my work – I voted early even though it’ll mean I’ll have to miss confronting armed Trumpista monitors outside my suburban church hall voting place next month.
On the bus homeward right now, right next to some young hip-hopper who’s been on the phone trying to get some woman (“bay-bee!”) to go out with him. “Nasty? How am ah nasty?…”
Deborah said on October 19, 2016 at 5:52 pm
I’m at the airport waiting for my flight to Chicago, an almost 3 hour flight and I lose an hour going from mountain to central time. Ugh.
Scout, lucky you. I saw the Obamas in person in Chicago when BO was elected in 2008, but I was soooo far from the stage I couldn’t see much. I so hope they eventually return to Chicago, but I will miss them being in the Whitehouse.
Scout said on October 19, 2016 at 5:54 pm
jcburns: Definitely. Maybe one town hall, but otherwise, no audience. And I think there should be rules for the mics. When one candidate is speaking the other’s mic should be off. If they go over the allotted time, cut the mic. Further, and maybe less easy to regulate, if they refuse to answer the debate topic question and simply veer off onto a talking point, cut the mic. #MakeDebatesCivilAgain.
susan said on October 19, 2016 at 6:37 pm
There should also be a buzzer when they lie. And then cut the mic.